The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
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Omega Block Equals Snow Storms ?

So we now come down to the home stretch of winter with basically about 20 days left of snow storms in my opinion.  The pattern is entering a few favorable signals like the -NAO +PNA and -AO. All three can make for some decent storms across the USA.  The first pattern change is the Omega Block as featured below.

 

Screen Shot 2013-02-19 at 11.42.35 AM

 

This block can create storms on either side of it and we see some of that developing not some much on the GFS but the on the Euro model in the mid and long range forecasts.

 

Screen Shot 2013-02-19 at 11.52.25 AM

 

The Euro is showing signs of a rain to snow situation Sunday the GFS is not on board yet so we'll watch future runs and see how this plays out.

 

Chances of snow the rest of the winter in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic

Feb 24-25 (omega block mix to snow?)

Feb 26-27 (Southern Slider)

Mar 02-04 (Nor'easter)

Mar 09-11 (rain to snow)

 

Chances of snow in the Plains and Midwest the rest of the winter.

Feb 19-21

Feb 25-26

Mar 01-02

Mar 10-11

Mar 24-25

 

Chances of snow in the Southwest and Rockies the rest of the winter.

Feb 19

Feb 24

Feb 27

Mar 04

May see a break for a few weeks than late March Rockies storm.

 

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Blog started by rob guarino , on 93 days ago
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Jeff McCoach
Until Feb 28/Mar 1 I say its rain rain go away.

But that system Feb 28 Mar 1 has much promise at this point from the Euro and the LR GFS. I'm a watch dat one:)
92 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Snowtrain I agree 100% with that comment.
93 days ago
 
Mark A
NAO, AO, and PNA forecast is the best we have ever seen since 2010-11!
93 days ago
 
Mark A
"The Pacific is still screwing us up here and will continue to do so"

WRONG, the MJO will move into "circle of death" and the blocking regime will take over. Dont believe me?

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BDd3VwmCEAA9qky.jpg:large
93 days ago
 
snowtrain
The Pacific is still screwing us up here and will continue to do so and this is why New England has cashed in most this winter on the east coast (as well as they do historically b/c of climo). We had a brief +PNA but it's been a predominantly -PNA all winter long keeping the train progressive across the country. I think the models are really going to start singing a different tune for early March here soon and this cold that the models are showing through the first half of March is not going to be accurate when all is said and done. I think the city south and east has a minimal chance at a significant snow event (6" or more) moving forward this season. I am for one am ready to move on from this winter. It has been the most frustrating winter that I can remember since I started tracking winter storms 10 years ago.
93 days ago
 
rob guarino
Thomas...

That storm will be the biggest one of the season out here in Southern AZ with the mountains behind my house picking up 15-20" of snow. It has potential in the NE but I'm not sold just yet.
93 days ago
 
Thomas G Barnes
Rob, what is your take on this major winter storm that has come from the Gulf of Alaska and is covering the country so to speak right now from CA to Chicago, any chance this system rides the Omega down south and than up the coast for us here in Philly? Twenty days is not that many days...
93 days ago
 
rob guarino
that's why I have the ? at the end of the blog title.
93 days ago
 
78yanks
It can also mean warm air intrusion as the low settles inland causing our region to witness wind and ocean influence results.
93 days ago
 


weatherrush


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