So we now come down to the home stretch of winter with basically about 20 days left of snow storms in my opinion. The pattern is entering a few favorable signals like the -NAO +PNA and -AO. All three can make for some decent storms across the USA. The first pattern change is the Omega Block as featured below.
This block can create storms on either side of it and we see some of that developing not some much on the GFS but the on the Euro model in the mid and long range forecasts.
The Euro is showing signs of a rain to snow situation Sunday the GFS is not on board yet so we'll watch future runs and see how this plays out.
Chances of snow the rest of the winter in the Northeast and Mid Atlantic
Feb 24-25 (omega block mix to snow?)
Feb 26-27 (Southern Slider)
Mar 02-04 (Nor'easter)
Mar 09-11 (rain to snow)
Chances of snow in the Plains and Midwest the rest of the winter.
Chances of snow in the Southwest and Rockies the rest of the winter.
May see a break for a few weeks than late March Rockies storm.
The Pacific is still screwing us up here and will continue to do so and this is why New England has cashed in most this winter on the east coast (as well as they do historically b/c of climo). We had a brief +PNA but it's been a predominantly -PNA all winter long keeping the train progressive across the country. I think the models are really going to start singing a different tune for early March here soon and this cold that the models are showing through the first half of March is not going to be accurate when all is said and done. I think the city south and east has a minimal chance at a significant snow event (6" or more) moving forward this season. I am for one am ready to move on from this winter. It has been the most frustrating winter that I can remember since I started tracking winter storms 10 years ago.
Rob, what is your take on this major winter storm that has come from the Gulf of Alaska and is covering the country so to speak right now from CA to Chicago, any chance this system rides the Omega down south and than up the coast for us here in Philly? Twenty days is not that many days...