Charles it’s better to keep your mouth shut and have people suspect you're a fool rather than to open it and prove them right. Rob did not say we would get a nor'easte between the 14-22. He said the set up was more favorable and could lead to one. No promise. I've been following Rob and the other pro mets here for many years. No Met promises a storm especially far out. If Rob and others are so bad as to require you to call them out I'm sure your wisdom could lead you to another site that matches your intellect better. The sooner you go the better.
Snowfall - just looked at all models - I'm not surprised. I think it shifts west, but still think NE is the winner...again. Maybe NY gets into the game, and maybe we get something more west of TTN. too many things not in our favor for the miracle I think - but 0Zs tonight will tell. Time to start nowcasting. Too easy to say this one's over and forget it - we'd all miss out on a lot of learning IMO. (general statement!!) Although I UNDERSTAND the FRUSTRATION!!!!!
Rob - next weekend has potential - but w/o ridging, the old progressive, fast pattern will be in play. Hopefully a dose of H in the north and some blocking can make it work.
We need this massive energy to move through to see next week more clearly.....
Rob your great guy and a knowledgable met and I know anything can happen but this winter is one of if not the worse of the many that I have lived thru in this area.This is true for me for several reasons.
The winter forecast erroneously gave a lot of hope to snow lovers in the Philly- South Jersey area especially after last years fiasco.We know how that has turned out .
We have had snow North ,West South and East of us and have missed out on chances such as this one for tomorrow night that five days ago looked so promising.Would anyone believe Cape May had more snow then Philly this winter?
The snow we have gotten has been an absolute joke and except for one minor one with always temp questions and whatever fell was gone before noon the next day.
I could go on but suffice to say get the white flag or towel and get ready to wave or throw it in. Forget the two storms you are talking about ,and ,I don't say this with any malice aforethought, give up on the winter it is beyond salvaging.
You know it's nice out there today and I am not too thrilled with any of the chances next week now either so I am done with the winter! I have had enough .3 inch flizzards, bring on spring b/c this winter is hands down the most frustrating I have ever seen for a snow lover. The Phils are in Florida now and I am ready to grill!
Edit: I'd gladly take a real snow storm if Mother Nature wants to throw us a bone, but I'm not holding my breath anymore!
It's a tough one to get to shift west simply because of where the front stops offshore tonight and carves out a track up the coast. The chance is there but more likely South Jersey coast to Coastal New England east of Islip NY.