12z Model Scoreboard 1PM

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12z Model Scoreboard 1PM

MODEL SCOREBOARD

Weekend Coastal

NAM- Wide Right

RPM- Comes west enough to give NJ 2-4" into LI

GFS- Comes west slightly, 1-2" NJ with NC getting a nice hit and Eastern New England. Middle Atlantic gets skipped!

EURO- Eastern NC special then wide right for many

GGEM- Eastern NC special then wide right barely.

UKMET- Wide right

NAM

The NAM came in with a miss wide right, but the most important factor here is its inaccuracy in the precip 6hrs out. In my blog below I outlined the importance of this and to some extent the CMC shows the importance of this from last night. The more south and intense the precip is the more heating we will throw in front of this trough allowing it to slow down. Right now this event is overperforming from all models...so lets see where the rest of the models take us this afternoon.

NAM ERROR

RPM

Along the coast it is purely coastal....inland is from tonight.

GFS

The precip shield comes west and is over Philly and east. In this set up the Carolinas get a good snow and it heads offshore and comes back around to hit Eastern New England! With -10C and precip spreading into NJ the ratios will be very high and could mean more if we get more precip to head west. A good trend does continue however!

GGEM

Shifts east with the latest run!

EURO

Summary

Given current observations I am fairly confident models will adjust in tonight's 00z run. This adjustment will be west, but this does not mean games on for a snow storm for the Northern Middle Atlantic. I am confident in a shift given the current radar (see nowcasting blog) but not sure if this shift will be major enough to bring the low far enough west to hit DC-PHL-NYC. But this is good news for Eastern NC and Eastern New England.

Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 123 days ago

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John Manetta

Snowfall, I wish I could, but I have to take two buses and the Market-Frankford sub to my appointment and all of that back. I promise, you'll get my take on all of this the moment that I get home, (I wont even look at anything, I will just check the model guidance and radar as I am doing my write up's). I have to go now.

123 days ago

Snowfall100

john come on do it now;p

123 days ago

John Manetta

P.S. This ATL event happened a while back.

123 days ago

Rich cinaglia

if this was a fight they would stop it and award an incredible victory over the snow lovers.

What ever happened to a normal snowstorm in the Philly area ,you know when the temps were below freezing before the storm and not 56 degrees ,when there was no question of it coming as opposed to wishing it could happen against all odds, and it actually stayed around for a few days and, get this ,it stuck to the streets as well as grassy surfaces and actually required plowing.

I appreciate Mike trying his best to make it snow here but he is fighting long odds and unlikely scenarios NO MAS .

123 days ago

John Manetta

Thanks SgtSnow; an IED jacked up my wrist, dinner was great with her, thanks for asking and bringing that up as any mention of anything pertaining to her brings a smile to my face and yes I do mean PHL. By the way, as far as a tease, you'll see later that it is not, barring huge changes. Also everyone, temperatures were very warm in Atlanta and the newscasters were saying, it's too warm for us to see snow within hours (I am paraphrasing but that's what they said), and sure enough it snowed as predicted shortly after, the dynamics were different but it can and does happen. Furthermore, the warm temperatures will help with dynamics (upward motion/vertical velocity,lapse rates...), fear not, barring a catastrophic change by this evening.

123 days ago

Snowfall100

Yeah reggie you're right until I get explanation from John later

123 days ago

Reggie Smith

lets all sing along now "without the negative N-A-O, NO SNOW, Noooo SNOW without the negative NAO"

123 days ago

Reggie Smith

guys i know we all want snow but reality is this thing is going ots for the big cities except boston and maybe nyc gets a little.

123 days ago

Snowfall100

Hmm, he may have a point here mike said it will shift west but hes not sure too far west that it gives philly a major snowstorm. Plus John has been very good with his forecasting this year basically spot on. He knows what hes talking about I am going to stick with him through this one. Euro looks to have gone west

123 days ago

SgtSnow

John your such a tease I hope you mean PHL and enjoyed your dinner with your daughter. I'm guessing PT won't be as much fun. Get better.

123 days ago

SgtSnow

Marcus. IDK where he is from but if he sticks around longer this regions disappointment quotient will wear that away. You know progressively. I know he drew me in to at least read what he says. He usually pretty good. Plus I like any hope from anywhere.

123 days ago

tominpa62

I have to second the temp concerns. It's 53 degrees in Doylestown at the moment. Hard to imagine that producing snow by mid evening. But stranger things have happened.

123 days ago

John Manetta

Snowfall100, you'll see when I explain later. Marcus, I'm almost certain that you were being sarcastic, however, for others on here, I am from around here. By the way, it seems more and more, that people think the tens of thousands in student loans, well over 20 grand of which I still owe was a total waste, you guys will understand when I get home.

123 days ago

Snowfall100

john euro gives some precip to eastern nj

123 days ago

Carole

57 degrees here in Philly suburbs; too warm?

123 days ago

John Manetta

Marcus, I do not give forecasts/outlooks based on optimism, I never, ever, "wishcast," and though I love a good snowstorm, I am practical in my outlooks. What I have said is not "too optimistic," it is, in fact well over 50 percent likely. I will give complete details as far as why this is the case when I get home later.

123 days ago

Snowfall100

john not seeing a huge trend anymore

123 days ago

Marcus wild

John must not be from around here, too optimistic!

123 days ago

John Manetta

Snowfall100, Well only God knows, but I have a good idea. Unless there are major changes between now and when I get home this evening, we're looking good.

123 days ago

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