Once again we are about 30-36 hours from another possible winter event and the models like the last two storm events do not add up. So one of the models is gonna be wrong at this point unless they start to mesh the next 24 hours.
The Euro was way under for precip in last night's event and is doing the same for this one. The NAM matched up pretty well with the GFS in the end but was too high 60-84 hours out and made a downward adjustment.
The GFS was pretty good with the last two storms so we'll lean that way for now and see the next two runs and compare with the others. I will take into account the NAM for this event too so this is kinda of a blend of the GFS and NAM. Now lets look at the CMC Canadian model.
Jeff, as far as myself providing a wealth of insight, yes, that goes especially to my two calls to Sue Serio, one in the winter of 1999/2000 and one much more recently, she changed nothing and was incorrect she should have taken my advice, that said she is a great forecaster. I've been around since the aFOX29 days, not on this site but I, like most of you most likely, was giving real time reports to them on air while they were doing wall to wall coverage of the big storms in the big winters by way of online reports.
I have plenty of time to analyze everything as I am a disabled vet, so I have a bit of an advantage there, (not that being injured in combat is an advantage but having plenty of time to look this over certainly is).
John you have always provided a wealth of insight. You should go for your forecast bust or not!! I for one am interested in your take and will never down you are any other member on this site for giving it a go.
No problem Rhonda, but there is never a need to thank me, we're looking much better as the important atmospheric data is being initialized (whereas it could not be while the disturbance was over water).
Lee, if and only if a strong coastal develops near us, the pressure gradient between it and the high to it's northwest will tighten, the high changing it's orientation of pressure gradient will likely affect the trough on it's west side and the kicker may well dive southward, rather than move more easterly.
Lee, I would love to hear this guy's explanation as to why solutions on a 00Z run are lost on the next run only to return on the 12z run, I mean unless he knows some sort of magic trick to change the facts then he is dead wrong.