I like to look back at precip totals from the previous storm and see how the models played out and the GFS won this past storm followed closely by the NAM and last was the Euro.
The Euro had very little precip and was wrong and too far east with the track. GRADE "D"
The NAM was too high at times but came close to the actual totals about 12-24 hours from the storm. GRADE "B-"
The GFS was pretty much dead on with total precip and had the best consistency of the big models in the last three days. GRADE "B+"
The off run of the GFS came in with even more snow but like this last storm the temps are marginal but enough for wet snow Friday night into mid morning on Saturday. Here is the latest model run RAW NUMBERS.
I'm leaning on the GFS for this storm. I looked over 2-3 hours worth of maps and model performance this last 3 weeks and the Euro has been a miss too many times within 48 hrs and the NAM has been way too high or too warm on occasions.
I know the GFS has the highest output right now but the track and trough set-up shows the reasoning for why I think the GFS has the trend correct as of this morning.
Some of you completely wrote off the storm as rain yesterday and yeah it snowed in many places. The stick factor has been a problem but once again it snowed.
I want you all to forget the last three winters..they were a fluke for sure. We had back to back huge winters with big storms...that is rare. We had no snow last winter... for the most part...rare again. This winter has been sub par for many but it's getting closer to closer to what a winter is really like in the Mid Atlantic region.
Small storms some rain to snow...1-2 light to moderate events etc. Let the winter play out and enjoy each storm as it shows up on the models and plays out the day of the storm.
I really do not watch or look at other media outlets for what they are saying ...it often clouds my judgement (no pun intended). I will continue to show you what is on the models...make a first and second call and do what I've been doing the past 6 years on this website. Teach...Learn...Predict.
WHEN: FRIDAY NIGHT TO SATURDAY NIGHT
WHERE: DC TO BOSTON
TYPE: WET SNOW (SLUSHY ON GRASSY AREAS, CARS)
WILDCARDS: OCEAN INFLUENCE, SPEED OF STORM
NEW GFS JUST IN 12z/7am TODAY... NOT A FORECAST
GFS 6z/1am MODEL RUN....NOT A FORECAST
NAM 12z/7am NEW RUN...RAW NUMBERS
EURO LAST NIGHT NUMBERS
.70" liquid for Philly 4-6" of snow now
.44" liquid for Philly 3-5" wet snow
.28" liquid for Philly 2-3" snow...NAM is colder this run
.16" liquid for Philly 1-2" wet snow (warm to start at surface)
PHILLY METRO 1ST CALL FROM ME 2-4"
.21" liquid for Allentown 1-2" wet snow
.19" liquid for Allentown 1-2" wet snow
.04" liquid for Allentown 0-1" wet snow
.11" liquid for Allentown 0-1" wet snow
ALLENTOWN 1ST CALL FROM ME 1-2"
1.03" liquid for Millville-Vineland 4-8" of snow
.55" liquid for Millville-Vineland 3-5" of snow
.47" liquid for Millville-VIneland 2-4" of snow
.07" liquid for Millville-Vineland 0" of snow
MILLVILLE-VINELAND 1ST CALL FROM ME 3-6"
.55" liquid for NYC (3-6" wet snow)
.42" liquid for NYC (3-5" wet snow)
.25" liquid for NYC (2-4" wet snow)
.20" liquid for NYC (1-2" wet snow)
NYC METRO 1ST CALL FROM ME 2-4"
.45" liquid for Morristown (North Jersey) (2-4" of snow)
.38" liquid for Morristown (North Jersey) 2-3" of snow)
.13" liquid for Morristown (North Jersey 1" of snow)
.21" liquid for Morristown (North Jersey 1-2" of snow)
MORRISTOWN (NORTH JERSEY) 1ST CALL 1-3"
.36" liquid for Baltimore (2-4" wet snow) lingering snow
.63" liquid for Baltimore (3-5" wet snow) 2 part storm
.41" liquid for Baltimore (2-4" wet snow) snow lingers into Saturday
.09" liquid for Baltimore (no big deal on the Euro again)
BALTIMORE METRO 1ST CALL FROM ME 1-3"
.37" liquid for DC Metro (2-4") of snow (it lingers)
.68" liquid for DC Metro (3-5" wet snow) 2 part storm
.42" liquid for DC Metro (2-4') wet snow) lingering snow
.10" liquid for DC Metro (1"? wet snow) no big deal again
Once again this will be for NE, Philly will get shafted again for sure. Euro does better with the trough, way less precip. NAM, good spot but weak. FIM (which did good lastnight IMO) keeps heavy precip NYC and east.
The ensembles are an interesting look. Many of the ensembles in the SREF 0900UTC show a lot more moisture than what is given in the GFS or CMC. Is this a sign that GFS and CMC will gradually add more moisture in the next two runs??
Jeff - Not sure but either way, it's a positive step. Would be more confident if it was the new model!!
36 - I hope you get it. I was lucky to get 6" from the storm last weekend - which was enough for kids/friends to have 2 great days of sledding/fun. it felt good. Hang in there - this one always seemed real for potential, though not the slow moving crushing storm I wanted - but another 6" would be fine with me!