The latest models are all over the place again as we head into the short term.  The GGEM/Euro have backed down showing less accumulations while the GFS and NAM continue to show a more significant threat.  Looking at our current observations I am favoring the NAM/WRF based on how far north this precip shield is already extending and the impressive convection in the Southeast.

However, all models are having trouble with the extension of the precip shield:

Notice in the first image we have  few squall lines trying to develop along the Gulf Coast.  

You can see a few inverted troughs extending from our low pressure system with a convectively enhanced warm front that will try to push north.  The convection to the north has enhanced this to the point that the sharp thermal gradient is kicking off convection right along it and pushing it north.  This is great news for a more impressive system and slightly north.  But the most important thing here is how this convection pushes east.  This batch of convection will slide east and depart from the precip in the Southern Plains.  So don't panic when this happens as it is supposed too, the precip will redevelop in the NW quadrant as it approaches.  

The squall lines trying to develop in the Deep South have caught my eye as they are entering an area of steep mid level lapse rates and MUCAPE values approaching 1000J/g.  If this does develop more they could enhance the strength of the southern stream s/w by having an enhanced LLJ.  This would support a stronger low. 

I am not ready to make a snow map since I want one more run of the SREF, so I can get a better idea where this banding will set up.  Above strong 700mb frontogenetic forcing coincides with moist potential vorticity, not seen here is the intense frontogenetic forcing in the lower levels to the southeast and the sounding from the NAM that shows upwards of 20J/Kg near this layer.  The steep slope frontogenetic forcing suggest a very dynamic heavy band of snow will form where someone could see 4+".  I highlighted the above area where my current thinking is currently.  

I will also be watching the convection in the southeast.  We want it to be slow and steady and not push too far east that quickly.  It will push east but we want a gradual push east.