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My SE PA (Philly) Snow Map 2:00 pm
This is for Wednesday night 10pm until Thursday 7am.
Blog started by rob guarino , on 98 days ago
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It's amazing to see this map has literally the numbers I had going yesterday, right down to sections of counties, it's good to see we're thinking alike on this. I am curious to see if a slight upward adjustment may be required, that will depend on how tonight's skew T plots look. Never the less I expect advisories to be issued soon, (though likely after one more run of guidance).
I like the map Rob, I would not mind a 1-3 inch event here on Wednesday but what are you seeing in terms of the bigger one that may be lurking out there? What do you make of this statement from the NWS, who cites the GFS:
"The American GFS model had been favoring the development of a powerful winter storm that would affect the Northeast with high winds and heavy snowfall. However, the latest runs of this model have 'blinked,' suggesting the low may stay offshore."
Way to early to state that? A huge holiday storm would be greta, we need a big snow storm here in Philly
"The American GFS model had been favoring the development of a powerful winter storm that would affect the Northeast with high winds and heavy snowfall. However, the latest runs of this model have 'blinked,' suggesting the low may stay offshore."
Way to early to state that? A huge holiday storm would be greta, we need a big snow storm here in Philly
NAM is usually over amped. Would be happier if the other models show this, until then....
Yeah, thats a good idea although its probably a little early for that. I'm going to start looking at it tommorow at 6Z for banding.
That's exactly why I am using it. I believe there will be some pretty decent snowfall rates from this. Nam is showing it.
Hey Marcus, thanks for the update. I am still curious as to why you would use the NAM for anything other than mesoscale features. The NAM is a junior varsity model.
18z nam keeps .5-.75qpf into Philly. Close to .75-1.0 to Philly. Nam isn't backing down.
Nice map format Rob. Easy to read and understand at a glance, without a lot of reading. Although I don't mind reading when we're talking about model ouput and possibiliites, etc. Thanks!
Well, Rob is the one I trust most, so I'm a bit disappointed we won't be seeing the 4+ that was projected yesterday.
Ah well, I'll be tracking and watching either way...
Ah well, I'll be tracking and watching either way...
Just came in from being out on lunch. It's beautiful right now. Too warm though. These totals may be right but I agree with Tim that accumulations will mainly be on grassy surfaces.
3-6" will fall regardless of forecasts. I got a little faith in the dynamics here. Earlier we can get clouds here the better. But this 50 degrees to snow tomorrow is going to create some nice lift, we saw it 2 weeks ago in nj and de. Nam is hinting at it with its 10" totals, lets see what happens but I refuse to let go of 3-6" for this one.
Agreed Tim. Probably a "nuisance" system on the Hurricane Schwartz scale; primarily because of the amount of rain likely to be involved for more than half of the duration, IMO.
Yeah my 1-3 call is right there. So why are people giving me a rough time lol.
Def not WSW Marcus, a little WWA at best.
This storm is nothing really.
Def not WSW Marcus, a little WWA at best.
This storm is nothing really.
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