The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
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Snowfall Forecast Wednesday Night

Ok we are just 36 hours away from another winter event and the temps are close but cold enought for snow in some areas.

 

**** SIDE NOTE NAM/GFS out here in AZ underplayed the storm out here yesterday. It was colder and wetter than the models forecasted.  Areas around Tucson picked up close to 4" of snow...the forecast was 1" or less and warmer. This same storm is headed to the Mid Atlantic.  *****

 

THIS IS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAP FOR WED NIGHT

Screen Shot 2013-02-12 at 7.32.32 AM

My thinking is not far from this map at this point but the wildcard for this storm is South Jersey and Central Delaware right now.  That area gets warmer but also shows the potential for the most precip from this storm.

 

The NAM is throwing out some pretty big numbers for this storm but it did this during the last storm too.  The precip totals are high but surface temps are near 31-33 degrees so I do think it will snow hard but the stick factor may take a little time N & W of Philly. Down in SNJ it may snow real hard and pile up fast after 10pm tomorrow night.

 

NAM & GFS RAW NUMBERS JUST IN...

(The total precip is higher I'm just showing the snow zone precip.)

 

Philly Snow Zone (.55") That's 3-5" with melt factor. (NAM)

Philly Snow Zone (.42") That's 3-4" with the melt factor. (GFS)

My first call for PHILADELPHIA 2-5" of snow for Wednesday night.

 

N & W Philly Burbs (.46") That's 3-5" with the melt factor (NAM)

N & W Philly Burbs (.37") That's 2-4" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call King of Prussia Horsham Pottstown Quakertown 2-4" 

 

Wilm DE Snow Zone (.57") That's 3-5" with the melt factor. (NAM)

Wilm DE Snow Zone (.41") That's 3-4" with the melt factor. (GFS)

My first call for WILMINGTON 3-5" for Wednesday night

 

Allentown Snow Zone (.28") That's 2-3" with the melt factor. (NAM)

Allentown Snow Zone (.27" That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for ALLENTOWN 1-3" for Wednesday night.

 

Reading Snow Zone (.31") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (NAM)

Reading Snow Zone (.34") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for READING 1-3" for Wednesday night.

 

 

Millville NJ Snow Zone (.71") That's 4-6" with the melt factor (NAM)

Millville NJ Snow Zone (.40") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for MILLVILLE-VINELAND 2-5" for Wednesday night

 

 

NYC & Newark NJ Snow Zone (.41") 3-4" with the melt factor (NAM)

NYC & Newark NJ Snow Zone (.24") 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for NYC & NEWARK-PARAMUS is 2-4" for Wednesday night

 

Morristown NJ Snow Zone (.34") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (NAM)

Morristown NJ Snow Zone (.27") That's 1-3" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for MORRISTOWN (NORTH NJ) is 1-3" for Wednesday night

 

Central NJ Snow Zone (.47") 4-5" with the melt factor (NAM)

Central NJ Snow Zone (.39") 3-4" with the melt factor GFS)

My first call for TRENTON-NEW BRUNSWICK-FREEHOLD is 3-5" 

 

 

Hudson Valley Snow Zone

 

 

Scranton Snow Zone (.07") 1" with the melt factor (NAM)

Scranton Snow Zone (.19") 1-2" with the melt factor (GFS)

My first call for SCRANTON DUNMORE WILKES 1-2" Wednesday nite.

 

Poconos Snow Zone

 

Baltimore Snow Zone 

DC Metro Snow Zone

Boston Snow Zone

Hartford Snow Zone

Providence Snow Zone

Blog started by rob guarino , on 98 days ago
You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this discussion
John Manetta
Gary; in 1979 a major snowstorm struck this area, it became know as the presidents day storm because of the day it hit the area, in 2003 it happened again and that one was known as "presidents day 2," the prospect of it occurring yet again has some referring to it as presidents day 3 or pd3 for short.
98 days ago
 
Gary W. Duren Sr.
Rob, as a teacher in severe need of an extra day off. You are agreeing with this map and in Dover we will be in school. (is this correct?) Also, for those of us that are extreme novices I would ask that every one spell out some things. For example, I am sure I am the only person who does not know what PD3 is. Like I said, since the format change a year ago, I do not come to the sight as often and I am confused.

By the way, I do like all of the comments from EVERYONE. Keep up the good work everyone.
98 days ago
 
Brian
According to discussion in Accuforums the CMC is getting a major upgrade at 12 noon tomorrow. I have a feeling this has something to do with it.

Tea Anyone?? Lets Party!!!
98 days ago
 
Marcus wild
I happen to agree the cmc is wrong. Went from south to this far north I dunno about that. But hey it could be onto something, I don't think so tho, should be snowy again by 00z.
98 days ago
 
Tyler
exactly, there is no way its going to rain that far north therfore its wrong. I am not saying its wrong becuase its showing rain for us, its the fact its sucking the warm air that far north shows its having problems. Thats all tim
98 days ago
 
Swipe
Cmc is not considered an always accurate model, it I be live it has had a bad run. If it showed 10" I would say it was wrong too
98 days ago
 
tim riggins
Its amazing, CMC is wrong because it shows a bad solution, but if it was a 6-10 snow, people would bank on it.
98 days ago
 
Tyler
the cmc is wrong..end of story
98 days ago
 
Justin
Even if PD 3 doesn't happen, what scientific proof does anyone have that winter is over? Gut feelings don't get it done. Winter of 93 wasn't all that great until March 13. And Steve did not say it was no shot, he said it is not looking likely.
98 days ago
 
Marcus wild
I was saying 1-3" for the blizzard. I have only said one storm was going to over perform was 1/25. That was a model fiasco.
98 days ago
 
tim riggins
Swipe its not broken, it has been showing the inland lakes cutter the past few runs bringing warm air up the east coast.
98 days ago
 
Jeff McCoach
I just can't get myself to rule out PD3 until Friday if the models don't grab it again. (Posted with fingers crossed!)
98 days ago
 
Swipe
12z cmc must be broken' , it has rain on Saturday even up into Maine and Canada
98 days ago
 
Rich cinaglia
We have been in similar situations all year and it hasn't turned out well in the Philly area and i don't see where this or PD is going to be any different.For one thing the cold isn t here and won t be even after this "storm"

When someone as good as Steve D downplays the PD storm I think its time to face the facts of this winter and hope next year is better.
98 days ago
 
Reggie Smith
Yes the pd3 storm will not happen
98 days ago
 
Jeff McCoach
Right on.
98 days ago
 
tim riggins
Because the one I have is a sim radar so it prob takes into account the warm base level temps.
98 days ago
 
Jeff McCoach
Hmmm... the CMC run on the eWall is completely different.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html
98 days ago
 
tim riggins
http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

newest run of the model. showed a great snow yesterday now literally nothing

cant be good
98 days ago
 
Jeff McCoach
Tim are you coming to the CMC rain conclusion from the model or from data?
98 days ago
 


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