Ok we are just 36 hours away from another winter event and the temps are close but cold enought for snow in some areas.
**** SIDE NOTE NAM/GFS out here in AZ underplayed the storm out here yesterday. It was colder and wetter than the models forecasted. Areas around Tucson picked up close to 4" of snow...the forecast was 1" or less and warmer. This same storm is headed to the Mid Atlantic. *****
THIS IS THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MAP FOR WED NIGHT
My thinking is not far from this map at this point but the wildcard for this storm is South Jersey and Central Delaware right now. That area gets warmer but also shows the potential for the most precip from this storm.
The NAM is throwing out some pretty big numbers for this storm but it did this during the last storm too. The precip totals are high but surface temps are near 31-33 degrees so I do think it will snow hard but the stick factor may take a little time N & W of Philly. Down in SNJ it may snow real hard and pile up fast after 10pm tomorrow night.
NAM & GFS RAW NUMBERS JUST IN...
(The total precip is higher I'm just showing the snow zone precip.)
Philly Snow Zone (.55") That's 3-5" with melt factor. (NAM)
Philly Snow Zone (.42") That's 3-4" with the melt factor. (GFS)
My first call for PHILADELPHIA 2-5" of snow for Wednesday night.
N & W Philly Burbs (.46") That's 3-5" with the melt factor (NAM)
N & W Philly Burbs (.37") That's 2-4" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call King of Prussia Horsham Pottstown Quakertown 2-4"
Wilm DE Snow Zone (.57") That's 3-5" with the melt factor. (NAM)
Wilm DE Snow Zone (.41") That's 3-4" with the melt factor. (GFS)
My first call for WILMINGTON 3-5" for Wednesday night
Allentown Snow Zone (.28") That's 2-3" with the melt factor. (NAM)
Allentown Snow Zone (.27" That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for ALLENTOWN 1-3" for Wednesday night.
Reading Snow Zone (.31") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (NAM)
Reading Snow Zone (.34") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for READING 1-3" for Wednesday night.
Millville NJ Snow Zone (.71") That's 4-6" with the melt factor (NAM)
Millville NJ Snow Zone (.40") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for MILLVILLE-VINELAND 2-5" for Wednesday night
NYC & Newark NJ Snow Zone (.41") 3-4" with the melt factor (NAM)
NYC & Newark NJ Snow Zone (.24") 2-3" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for NYC & NEWARK-PARAMUS is 2-4" for Wednesday night
Morristown NJ Snow Zone (.34") That's 2-3" with the melt factor (NAM)
Morristown NJ Snow Zone (.27") That's 1-3" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for MORRISTOWN (NORTH NJ) is 1-3" for Wednesday night
Central NJ Snow Zone (.47") 4-5" with the melt factor (NAM)
Central NJ Snow Zone (.39") 3-4" with the melt factor GFS)
My first call for TRENTON-NEW BRUNSWICK-FREEHOLD is 3-5"
Hudson Valley Snow Zone
Scranton Snow Zone (.07") 1" with the melt factor (NAM)
Scranton Snow Zone (.19") 1-2" with the melt factor (GFS)
My first call for SCRANTON DUNMORE WILKES 1-2" Wednesday nite.
Gary; in 1979 a major snowstorm struck this area, it became know as the presidents day storm because of the day it hit the area, in 2003 it happened again and that one was known as "presidents day 2," the prospect of it occurring yet again has some referring to it as presidents day 3 or pd3 for short.
Rob, as a teacher in severe need of an extra day off. You are agreeing with this map and in Dover we will be in school. (is this correct?) Also, for those of us that are extreme novices I would ask that every one spell out some things. For example, I am sure I am the only person who does not know what PD3 is. Like I said, since the format change a year ago, I do not come to the sight as often and I am confused.
By the way, I do like all of the comments from EVERYONE. Keep up the good work everyone.
exactly, there is no way its going to rain that far north therfore its wrong. I am not saying its wrong becuase its showing rain for us, its the fact its sucking the warm air that far north shows its having problems. Thats all tim
Even if PD 3 doesn't happen, what scientific proof does anyone have that winter is over? Gut feelings don't get it done. Winter of 93 wasn't all that great until March 13. And Steve did not say it was no shot, he said it is not looking likely.
We have been in similar situations all year and it hasn't turned out well in the Philly area and i don't see where this or PD is going to be any different.For one thing the cold isn t here and won t be even after this "storm"
When someone as good as Steve D downplays the PD storm I think its time to face the facts of this winter and hope next year is better.