NAM- Big hit with snow from DC-PHL-NYC into snow starved CT! Could be a nice band of 4-8"
GFS- 4-6" from DC to PHL to LI.
RPM- 2-4" isolated 4-6" from DC-PHL
EURO- 2-4" DC to PHL North trend
GGEM- 4-8" DC-NYC North trend
UKMET- 3-6" N VA-DC--PHL
NAM COOLS DOWN
The NAM is now seeing the kicker s/w that it ignored for the most part in the previous runs. We are now getting into the NAM range and it presents a reasonable solution by siding with the consistent GFS. It is a little more aggressive than the GFS, but the solution is a good one and with the GFS not far behind it is putting pressure on the Euro.
GFS backs off from the previous run because it is quicker with the kicker s/w. This pushes it east sooner before it can develop into a stronger system. The slightest change in the kicker s/w could result in the continuation of this to be pushed east quicker, or the opposite and bring back those big time numbers!
The RPM tends to have a south bias in the extended part of its runs (48-72hrs). And if that's the case we could see this model come more towards a GFS/NAM compromise.
The GGEM and Euro continue to come north with this system. The GGEM is the most impressive model as of now with the NAM. The Euro is showing signs and trends of increasing snowfall amounts, but overall it keeps the action south of most models. Good news is Philly is on this one on the Euro's 2-4" band. The main feature here I have been outlining is still in the Pacific and could lead to a last minute shift in the models, but more importantly convection firing up tomorrow night and Wednesday in the Southeast will give us a better idea on the intensity of this system.
You saying that about vday storm heat island? If so gfs showed a pretty potent v day storm 10 days ago. Not sure we're trending back that far. But I think a normal 3-6" snowfall is in store for Philly Thursday. Finally..
Aaaaa the Gfs12mref still shows the storm still there has phasing issues with probably later later phase but it may be backing off lets see what the op models say. That is the PD storm. The VD storm looks good give or take 6 inches depending on track, but will VD affect PD and how