MODEL SCOREBOARD

NAM- Big hit with snow from DC-PHL-NYC into snow starved CT!  Could be a nice band of 4-8"

GFS- 4-6" from DC to PHL to LI.  

RPM- 2-4" isolated 4-6" from DC-PHL

EURO- 2-4" DC to PHL North trend

GGEM- 4-8" DC-NYC North trend

UKMET- 3-6" N VA-DC--PHL

NAM COOLS DOWN

The NAM is now seeing the kicker s/w that it ignored for the most part in the previous runs.  We are now getting into the NAM range and it presents a reasonable solution by siding with the consistent GFS.  It is a little more aggressive than the GFS, but the solution is a good one and with the GFS not far behind it is putting pressure on the Euro.  

GFS

GFS backs off from the previous run because it is quicker with the kicker s/w.  This pushes it east sooner before it can develop into a stronger system.  The slightest change in the kicker s/w could result in the continuation of this to be pushed east quicker, or the opposite and bring back those big time numbers!

RPM

The RPM tends to have a south bias in the extended part of its runs (48-72hrs).  And if that's the case we could see this model come more towards a GFS/NAM compromise.  

GGEM

UKMET

EURO

Summary

The GGEM and Euro continue to come north with this system.  The GGEM is the most impressive model as of now with the NAM.  The Euro is showing signs and trends of increasing snowfall amounts, but overall it keeps the action south of most models.  Good news is Philly is on this one on the Euro's 2-4" band. The main feature here I have been outlining is still in the Pacific and could lead to a last minute shift in the models, but more importantly convection firing up tomorrow night and Wednesday in the Southeast will give us a better idea on the intensity of this system.