As stronger forcing sets up over the region and the two systems interacting suggest the rapid fill in of the radar above. As the radar lights up we will begin to see the back edge come to a stop and backbuild. Where that occurs is the million dollar question right now but should not be too far from where it is now so keep an eye on radar!
The sfc pressure image below shows the low continuing to intensify as the merger occurs. Notice the inverted trough extending through NJ. To the right of this feature watch out for some big time snow rates shortly!
Game, set, match...... No back edge snow. No bombing out for the Delaware Valley. No "real show" starting between 7 and 9 tonight - unless of course you live in Hartford or Boston.
Doesn't surprise me. It was evident at 8 this AM that the coastal LOW was much farther east then modeled on the 00z. Water vapor imagery doesn't lie, and neither does the Mesoscale critical thickness map.
Three years ago you got shafted alot while we got crushed down here. I'm bummed we aren't getting snow but I think us Maryland guys owe you about 5 or 6 ten inch snows while we take it on the chin.
One good thing on my end is the 09-10 season actually made me dislike shoveling. Thought I'd never say that. The little coatings and 1 inch snows down here have been nice as I have not dusted the shovel off in two years now. I'm thinking even if a crazy band hits me tonight it will melt in the sun tomorrow.
Remember lift with your legs this snow will be heavy!
Rebel all back end snows are set ups for failure. However the ones that do work out make us hold out hope each time. Wonder if the models will ever get to the point where they don't show insane back end snows that don't happen?? Would definitely cut down on the bust potential.
This was/is a storm for the ages. I do admit I'm bummed that it missed DE; but it showed me how to follow the models better. I'm still new to the site and this I've learned a ton from this storm and you're analysis.
In DE now we have 36 degrees and 33 DP with nothing from the sky......for now.....