I like the Euro as my model of choice for this storm in many ways. I do think it has been on this from the get go and it is now starting to tweak the storm. In the end I think my snow map will sit between the Euro and GFS with a closer lean to the Euro. So lets look at the raw numbers and compare the two runs.
I also look at the NAM and CMC Canadian but I'm leaning on the Euro and GFS for 80% of my forecast thinking at this point.
NUMBERS ON THE LEFT GFS. RIGHT EURO. BELOW THAT MY 1st CALL
Wilm DE...Rain to Snow Friday night 2-4" Euro...2-3" rain to snow
Rob's call for Wilmington DE... 2-4" rain to snow
Philly PA...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5" Euro 3-5" rain to snow
Rob's 1st call for Philadelphia Rain to snow 3-5"
Reading...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5" Euro 3-5" rain to snow Rob's 1st call for Reading Pottstown King of Prussia 3-5"
Allentown...Rain to snow by Friday 4pm 4-6" Euro 5-8" 90% snow
Rob's 1st call for Allentown, Perkasie, Easton, Bethlehem, 4-7"
Trenton NJ...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5" Euro 4-6" rain to snow
Rob's 1st call for Trenton Ewing Florence Cranbury 4-6"
Lancaster PA... All snow 4-6" Euro 4-6" all snow
Rob's 1st call for Lancaster Lititz 4-6"
Atlantic City...Mostly rain...snow late 1-3" Euro 3-5" rain to snow
Rob's 1st call A.C. Tuckerton Ocean City LBI 2-5" rain to snow
Millville NJ...Rain to snow late 2-4" Euro 2-4" Rain to snow
Rob's 1st call for Millville Vineland Elmer Dennis 2-4" rain to snow
Dover DE...Rain to snow 1-3"
Baltimore...Rain to flurries
DC Metro...Rain showers
Poconos...Mostly snow little mix 6-8"
Scranton-Wilkes Barre...Snow...little mix 6-8" Euro 5-8" Snow
Rob's 1st call for Scranton Dunmore Carbondale 5-8" Snow
NYC Metro...Light snow to rain to snow 4-6" Euro Mix to Snow 7-10"
Rob's first call for NYC Western LI Elizabeth NJ Mix to Snow 5-9"
North Jersey...Light snow to rain to snow 4-6" Euro Mix to Snow 7-10"
Rob's 1st Call for North Jersey Paramus Hackensack Hoboken 5-9"
Long Island (Islip) Light snow to rain to snow 4-7"
Lower Hudson Valley...All snow 8-12"
Binghamton NY...All snow 8-12"
Albany NY... All snow 8-11"
Syracuse NY All snow 8-12" (lake snow possible sat night)
Springfield MA All snow 9-13"
Burlington VT All snow 8-11"
Boston...All snow 18-22" Euro 30-32" Snow (3 runs in a row !)
I think this storm will pull out a surprise at some point. I have a feeling (no model guidance backing me up or anything) that we will get more then predicted in Philly and to the N/W Suburbs and Lehigh Valley.....the trend is getting better
Given how strong the winds will be and how much cold air will be drawn in on the backside (and temps will absolutely plummet quickly), we can't rule out a good accumulation for the DV and points just to the south - even into Cap May Co.
Stay tuned. This story is just beginning.
Down here in the mid-south, we'll try to toss some extra GOM moisture into the system.
Right Wenner, 50 miles, not 100-150. And if we've learned anything over the years, it's that a storm can certainly shift 50+ miles one way or another; especially when we're still outside the 36 hour window.
Actually Tim, nevermind, people may actually have questions that I can answer as a meteorology major and I don't want to waste time going back to look at the other things, also, it wouldn't be fair to point out things that you said without doing the same for everyone else, so I'm not going to go any further regarding that.
Firstly: when you said "We might see just rain and wet snow on the backend giving us no accumulation which is very likely at this point," I could not disagree more, the CMC, GFS, ECMWF just to name a few give this area significantly more then that, you aren't seeing this in the NWS forecasts yet because it is common policy to keep continuity,in outlook, that is, when it is avoidable it's best to not make sudden, drastic changes to the forecast. Slowly changing the forecast by ramping it up, or down is best....