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GFS 12:15pm Update
The GFS is just rolling in now and I expect to see a bigger storm on this run. The real issue is where to place the track and that 540 snow line. I don't think the GFS will be a wild as the EURO but let's find out in the next 30 minutes.
As you can see small changes the next 36 hours can make a big difference but will it be enough?
Raw numbers just in on the GFS (those snow totals do take into account the rain or mix at the start of the storm.
Wilm DE...Rain to Snow Friday night 2-4"
Philly PA...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5"
Reading...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5"
Allentown...Rain to snow by Friday 4pm 4-6"
Trenton NJ...Rain to snow by Friday night 3-5"
Lancaster PA... All snow 4-6"
Atlantic City...Mostly rain...snow late 1-3"
Millville NJ...Rain to snow late 2-4"
Dover DE...Rain to snow 1-3"
Baltimore...Rain to flurries
DC Metro...Rain showers
Poconos...Mostly snow little mix 6-8"
Scranton-Wilkes Barre...Mostly snow...little mix 6-8"
NYC Metro...Light snow to rain to snow 4-6"
North Jersey...Light snow to rain to snow 4-6"
Long Island (Islip) Light snow to rain to snow 4-7"
Lower Hudson Valley...All snow 8-12"
Binghamton NY...All snow 8-12"
Albany NY... All snow 8-11"
Syracuse NY All snow 8-12" (lake snow possible sat night)
Springfield MA All snow 9-13"
Burlington VT All snow 8-11"
Boston...All snow 18-22"
Providence...90% snow...some mix 19-22"
Portland ME...All snow 15-20"
Hartford CT...All snow 12-14"
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
The GFS is not all that bad this morning and is trending to a bigger storm. The NAM is trying to get there so tonight will be a big run for the NAM. The Euro will be in shortly (1:30pm) and "IF" it shows another run at a mega storm you have to start to lean that way.
I am leaning to the idea of rain to snow in the Trenton area southward. NYC may do a mix to snow and from NYC to Portland it could get real ugly Friday into Saturday with over one foot of snow possible.
Places inland like the Hudson Valley, Capital District, Southern Tier of NY, Poconos and Scranton, NW NJ you'll see most likely all snow. It's a moderate to big storm on the charts right now....the biggest in 2 years.
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Problem is the northern stream coming in too far east. If it entered the us in Montana we'd be in a much better spot for it to dig south. It does not look like its going to dig far enough south for Philly/LV. But we'll see. Things always change with these monster storms, but in my opinion this is the big one for Boston, and not much around here.
(I want to be wrong on our part)
This is a HECS for New England.
Biggest snowfall ever is an exaggeration. Maybe you were not around in 1996 but this storm is not a large as that one. We may not get much but this is not a HECS yet. If we get nothing I do not see Boston having its largest snowfall ever. In order for Boston to get over 27 inches they need to storm to explode and slow down. If it does that then the PHL metro area will see wrap around snow. I see PHL getting 2-4 and the LV at 4-6. Obviously the further north you go the better I see it. JMHO
1-3" SW and SC PA
3-6" Philly and NW Suburbs(Philly around 3")
4-8" Allentown/Quakertown/Reading
8"+ Northern LV on North and East
All in All I would have to say that's a good call as it stands now.
Still got some hope down this way. 0z are about the last model runs that could change significantly. then we are 48 hrs out so dont expect major changes tomorrow
Anyway, shows Boston still getting 30".
This is going to be their biggest snowstorm ever.
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