The GFS is just rolling in now and I expect to see a bigger storm on this run. The real issue is where to place the track and that 540 snow line. I don't think the GFS will be a wild as the EURO but let's find out in the next 30 minutes.
As you can see small changes the next 36 hours can make a big difference but will it be enough?
Raw numbers just in on the GFS (those snow totals do take into account the rain or mix at the start of the storm.
Long Island (Islip) Light snow to rain to snow 4-7"
Lower Hudson Valley...All snow 8-12"
Binghamton NY...All snow 8-12"
Albany NY... All snow 8-11"
Syracuse NY All snow 8-12" (lake snow possible sat night)
Springfield MA All snow 9-13"
Burlington VT All snow 8-11"
Boston...All snow 18-22"
Providence...90% snow...some mix 19-22"
Portland ME...All snow 15-20"
Hartford CT...All snow 12-14"
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
The GFS is not all that bad this morning and is trending to a bigger storm. The NAM is trying to get there so tonight will be a big run for the NAM. The Euro will be in shortly (1:30pm) and "IF" it shows another run at a mega storm you have to start to lean that way.
I am leaning to the idea of rain to snow in the Trenton area southward. NYC may do a mix to snow and from NYC to Portland it could get real ugly Friday into Saturday with over one foot of snow possible.
Places inland like the Hudson Valley, Capital District, Southern Tier of NY, Poconos and Scranton, NW NJ you'll see most likely all snow. It's a moderate to big storm on the charts right now....the biggest in 2 years.
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Rob, Mike or Kevin, please help me? I think everybody on here does a phenominal job. I just dont understand how the peeps here say that we are so close to a MECS, then i read on Accu Geeks that rain will fall mostly south of NYC. Dont we all look at the same models? What do u see as opposed to other site?
Hey sgtsnow I disagree. This I think will be Boston's biggest snowfall ever. This thing slows down to a crawl near cape cod, cmc showed that too. It's just too late for us
Problem is the northern stream coming in too far east. If it entered the us in Montana we'd be in a much better spot for it to dig south. It does not look like its going to dig far enough south for Philly/LV. But we'll see. Things always change with these monster storms, but in my opinion this is the big one for Boston, and not much around here.
Ouch, well this is my weekend off so I'll be listening to you guys on one of my radios if I get stuck inside...but I don't think it will be too bad...stay safe out there! Btw, do you guys have a new boss yet?
WP, working and in charge on Friday and Saturday so not sure if I want to deal with all of this. Whatever happens I don't want ice but i think the issue will be warmer surface temps keeping it rain so I hope ice is out. Plus I do not feel like digging out at 0500 before I go in. Hope all is wll with you.
The best chance for wrap around is gonna be closer to the coast which is why i think the RPM is onto something. all of NJ gets hammered on the RPM. now i dont see 30 inches plus for northern NJ and dont see 12+ in snj, but i agree that the wrap around will be better in jersey
Rob B, Biggest snowfall ever is an exaggeration. Maybe you were not around in 1996 but this storm is not a large as that one. We may not get much but this is not a HECS yet. If we get nothing I do not see Boston having its largest snowfall ever. In order for Boston to get over 27 inches they need to storm to explode and slow down. If it does that then the PHL metro area will see wrap around snow. I see PHL getting 2-4 and the LV at 4-6. Obviously the further north you go the better I see it. JMHO
Eastern PA Weather Authority Issued a first call map: 1-3" SW and SC PA 3-6" Philly and NW Suburbs(Philly around 3") 4-8" Allentown/Quakertown/Reading 8"+ Northern LV on North and East All in All I would have to say that's a good call as it stands now.