NAM 10:15am Morning update

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NAM 10:15am Morning update

The new NAM model is coming in and it has the LOW but east of the I-95 cities of Philly and Baltimore and too far inland for Providence and Boston. This in a nut shell means no snow for Philly and a rain/mix for NYC Providence and Boston.

The images above are from hour 57 to 66 this morning. We are in range to fine tune and see which model comes out on top with this storm.

NAM...in now (been east and offshore)

GFS starts at 10:30am (Starting to come around to Euro but warmer)

CMC starts about 12:00 noon (in between GFS and Euro)

EURO starts about 1:15pm (Mega storm leader right now)

However...this is an improvement to the last 6 runs since it now makes the main storm up the coast a bigger storm. The track needs to be a little more ENE rather due North if you can understand that this morning.

The NAM has been off this winter and just a few weeks ago it yanked back a storm from moderate to light. We'll see if it jumps into the snow game at the very last moment.

AHHHH REALLY ?

Boston 50" of snow off this NAM run. Providence 30"

Blog started by rob guarino , on 100 days ago

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John Manetta

Dominick; you and I were on the same wavelength there.

100 days ago

John Manetta

in 2 hours

100 days ago

John Manetta

Boston breaking it's all time record for most snowfall recorded is inherently unlikely due to the fact that all time snowfall records are rarely broken, especially in the northern tier. That said, I would like to be there, but the odds of them seeing 45-50-60" are likely very similar to that of Philadelphia seeing 30.

100 days ago

Dominick Mogstad

FIFTY inches? lol thats so believable

100 days ago

John Manetta

Paul; the worst part of all of that, is that it's all true.

100 days ago

Paul Ferguson

Lol....John, you are right. That guy is a kook. Funny story.

100 days ago

John Manetta

Bolaris making bad a call wasn't the issue so much as it was that he forced an interruption of programming, a crawl warning regarding the storm. That's not what ran him out of town though, what got him fired was the playboy interview in which he said he had hoped to "get laid" by a couple of girls that drugged him and robbed him.

100 days ago

Heat Island 718

12GFS also has a dry slot forming i. And around the metro NYC and western LI and along the I95 corridor but to a lesser extent. NYC has mixing issues to deal with so does Phila but warning criterior snows on the back end. It could be this storms has 2 parts of snow with a halftime of mixing. I really need to see the Euro to see if it holds its ground from lastnight. Now on to the Canadian and Ukmet

100 days ago

Heat Island 718

12Nam is a problem in which its featuring a pronounced dry slot forming around the 540 line on the I95 corridor. Very sharp cutoff

100 days ago

Heat Island 718

Hey Rob

Just looking ahead and that Valentines day storm looking like a massacre right now. We will be above average for the year with 2 storms. There's a saying that we have around these parts. Only in New York!!!!!!!

100 days ago

Paul Ferguson

This storm reminds me of the storm that ran Bolaris out of town ( the first time, I forget what year). Didn’t he jump the gun and forecast the “end of the world” blizzard and everything shifted north ( Boston) where the big snows fell? The EURO will set the table today to see if this stays north or begins its southern decent.

100 days ago

Justin

Thanks Sgt!

100 days ago

Marcus wild

Boston is pretty much guaranteed 12"+ right now the nam/gfs/euro all have it. Question is can we get this south too. I have my doubts just because of the angle of the northern stream s/w but well see.

Euro run is big for Philly to NYC... Boston I think is locked into a mecs/HECS.

100 days ago

Jaryd More

Feels like a long wait lol

100 days ago

Marcus wild

There's not much time left to trend more south. 00z tonight maybe the last chance. Well see what the euro does.. If the euro holds or comes in slightly more south game on in my opinion.

100 days ago

Jaryd More

Biggest run of the year IMO in a little over an hour

100 days ago

Jaryd More

If euro is better than 00z than you have to assume models will fall to the Euro

100 days ago

Marcus wild

Sgt, 60" is white lol. Makes sense right? It's actually pee colored snowy white.

100 days ago