The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
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Euro Analysis

The new European slams the Northeast with a historic winter storm in New England extending down into Long Island.  The major cities get in on the fun with the Euro showing 4-8" in Philly now...for your location check out ROB'S EURO SNOWFALL BLOG

 

Why is the Euro slowly pushing this heavier snow south? The answer is below:

 

Screen shot 2013-02-06 at 3.26.43 AM

 

Screen shot 2013-02-06 at 3.26.33 AM

 

Notice the northern stream s/w located in Western PA on the last image.  This s/w comes in much stronger and deeper and more importantly on a negative tilt.  This forces the sfc low to come closer by increasing our confluent flow across Eastern Canada and building a stronger high pressure system.  This slows the system down enough to allow for an earlier capture farther to the south.  In my last blog I talked about how the northern stream vort max went through NY/PA border, then went through south central PA, and now it goes through MD!  See the trend!

 

On the previous run the Euro is faster and less amped with the northern stream and acts as a kicker for a little bit before phasing.  With the deeper solution we phase quicker.

 

 

The GFS will continue to play catch up but does show this trend also, but the important thing here is that the models are focusing in on the energy as it comes in from the Pacific. Usually when models make these adjustments from the Pacific systems they continue it for a little bit before locking in.  Seeing the Euro show this solution right now is a great thing for a snow lover from Philly on north.

 

Now some eye candy for you!

Screen shot 2013-02-06 at 3.20.16 AM

Screen shot 2013-02-06 at 3.20.26 AM

Screen shot 2013-02-06 at 3.20.34 AM

  

Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 103 days ago
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Marilyn Iwan
What's Michigan going to get? hardly any I hope
103 days ago
 
Heat Island 718
Helllooooooow everybody its calm before the storm but only for civilians not for mets. This is about the time when we make some calls and put people on notice, pull our hair out, and be on the 2 nd bottle of visine. I'm already caffeined out. If this sounds like you holla.
103 days ago
 
Heat Island 718
"I love it when a storm comes together". R hey guys remember and old 80's throwback The A Team.
103 days ago
 
toNY
Nice, seems like thats whats going to happen. Thank you Eric B
103 days ago
 
Eric B
Blizzard of 78:

Boston - 27.1" (still their all-time record)
NYC - over 20" (not sure of exact number)
Philly - 14.1"
103 days ago
 
toNY
Marcus you probably know this....the blizzatd of 1978, what were the total snow accumulations for Philly, NYC and Boston?
103 days ago
 
scoopy
Flyers win tonight ...and the Euro looking better....2 for 2 let the good times roll .lol
103 days ago
 
weatherman71
The short range NAM should never be ignored.
103 days ago
 
Mike DeFino
NAM is not the model to rely on yet...that and the SREF always plays catch up to the globals until 60hrs out.

The Euro has a good shot at verifying given how close we are to the event and the way we are trending.
103 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Lol. I hear ya scoopy. I won't be hooked back in until the euro gives Philly at least 3 runs of this. 12z may be a completely opposite solution. Not looking to getting dreams crushed.
103 days ago
 
toNY
Weather man: nam sux lol. Ill take gfs and euro over any other models. You know better. Marcus stay positive looks like the storm we've been waiting for over 2 years. Mike thank you for the update, we really appreciate it.
103 days ago
 
scoopy
This is so funny ,i'm trying not to get hook back in.....
Mike what are the chances at this point the Euro verifies .....
103 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Mike .. Blizzard Of 78 repeat? Looks like it.
103 days ago
 
weatherman71
The NAM was laughable for Philly.
103 days ago
 
Marcus wild
If that s/w dives into VA instead...1-3 feet from Philly to Boston.
103 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Uhhhhhh. Euro I swear...if you do this to me.... I will ever forget it. We're literally 50-75 miles from a MECS...I won't say the H word just yet for us...but Boston has a HECS on the way
103 days ago
 


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