The new European slams the Northeast with a historic winter storm in New England extending down into Long Island. The major cities get in on the fun with the Euro showing 4-8" in Philly now...for your location check out ROB'S EURO SNOWFALL BLOG
Why is the Euro slowly pushing this heavier snow south? The answer is below:
Notice the northern stream s/w located in Western PA on the last image. This s/w comes in much stronger and deeper and more importantly on a negative tilt. This forces the sfc low to come closer by increasing our confluent flow across Eastern Canada and building a stronger high pressure system. This slows the system down enough to allow for an earlier capture farther to the south. In my last blog I talked about how the northern stream vort max went through NY/PA border, then went through south central PA, and now it goes through MD! See the trend!
On the previous run the Euro is faster and less amped with the northern stream and acts as a kicker for a little bit before phasing. With the deeper solution we phase quicker.
The GFS will continue to play catch up but does show this trend also, but the important thing here is that the models are focusing in on the energy as it comes in from the Pacific. Usually when models make these adjustments from the Pacific systems they continue it for a little bit before locking in. Seeing the Euro show this solution right now is a great thing for a snow lover from Philly on north.
Helllooooooow everybody its calm before the storm but only for civilians not for mets. This is about the time when we make some calls and put people on notice, pull our hair out, and be on the 2 nd bottle of visine. I'm already caffeined out. If this sounds like you holla.
Weather man: nam sux lol. Ill take gfs and euro over any other models. You know better. Marcus stay positive looks like the storm we've been waiting for over 2 years. Mike thank you for the update, we really appreciate it.