The European model shows a phase at 90hrs, with rapid deepening and the storm being captured which leads to a stall right along Southern New England coast.  This model shows BIG TIME snow for New England with the threat extending down into PA.  However, to start the profiles are way too warm for snow in PHL and PA.  This changes as the storm passes by and cold air comes in, it will change rain to snow.  For exact amounts read ROB G'S BLOG HERE

COMPARE OLD VS NEW EURO

The new Euro brings the northern stream s/w farther south and meets the southern stream energy by capturing it.  The vort max travels across South Central PA on this run instead of the NY/PA border.  This results in a very impressive snow storm for New England.

What needs to happen for Philly?

Well the trends are great, but running out of time.  We can hope for some back end snow and right now once this thing phases it is going to put down back end snow.  The strength of this low and the phasing WILL put down some great back end snows! I know many hate the idea of back end snows here but this is one storm you want to get in on it. Check out the GFS during the phase:

This from the lesser impressive but still impressive GFS.  The dynamic back end snows will stall once this thing is captured off the coast.  The GFS is more progressive with this and the Euro is way more impressive, but you can see how little this back end moves with the phase.  The importance here is NYC is right on the line here and looking good for a big snow storm.  This threat extends down in to N NJ and NE PA.  But since the phase happens too late these areas don't get the jackpot, but do share in on the fun.  In Eastern PA the back end snow is not far and it is not far fetched to see a 3-6" band set up somewhere close by.

And the Euro says Happy Valentines Day (Although rain to snow for most this time period is becoming very favorable):

LETS GO FLYERS 

I am on my way to the game and won't be back until new euro is in so check back early in the morning!

REGISTER ON THE WEBSITE FOR EMAIL UPDATES....

ALERTS AND MORE