The European model shows a phase at 90hrs, with rapid deepening and the storm being captured which leads to a stall right along Southern New England coast. This model shows BIG TIME snow for New England with the threat extending down into PA. However, to start the profiles are way too warm for snow in PHL and PA. This changes as the storm passes by and cold air comes in, it will change rain to snow. For exact amounts read ROB G'S BLOG HERE
COMPARE OLD VS NEW EURO
The new Euro brings the northern stream s/w farther south and meets the southern stream energy by capturing it. The vort max travels across South Central PA on this run instead of the NY/PA border. This results in a very impressive snow storm for New England.
What needs to happen for Philly?
Well the trends are great, but running out of time. We can hope for some back end snow and right now once this thing phases it is going to put down back end snow. The strength of this low and the phasing WILL put down some great back end snows! I know many hate the idea of back end snows here but this is one storm you want to get in on it. Check out the GFS during the phase:
This from the lesser impressive but still impressive GFS. The dynamic back end snows will stall once this thing is captured off the coast. The GFS is more progressive with this and the Euro is way more impressive, but you can see how little this back end moves with the phase. The importance here is NYC is right on the line here and looking good for a big snow storm. This threat extends down in to N NJ and NE PA. But since the phase happens too late these areas don't get the jackpot, but do share in on the fun. In Eastern PA the back end snow is not far and it is not far fetched to see a 3-6" band set up somewhere close by.
And the Euro says Happy Valentines Day (Although rain to snow for most this time period is becoming very favorable):
LETS GO FLYERS
I am on my way to the game and won't be back until new euro is in so check back early in the morning!
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 443 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-062100- NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC- EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX- EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND- NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 443 PM EST TUE FEB 5 2013
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHEAST NEW YORK.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
A POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM COULD PRODUCE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AND STRONG WINDS FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK PROVIDES A SUMMARY OF POTENTIAL WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENTS THAT MAY REACH NWS WARNING CRITERIA. MOST LONG FUSED NWS WATCHES...WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT ARE HIGHLIGHTED.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NWS FORECASTS FOR WEATHER NOT MEETING NWS WARNING CRITERIA $$