Ok so this is the core of the winter and for the next 6 weeks...Feb 1-March 15 it's do or die to salvage the winter of 2012-2013. I did call for slightly above average snowfall for DC to Boston so I have a lot of ground to make up for the next six weeks.  So far the maps show winter for the second half of February.

So what do we need to happen to get several moderate to maybe big storms? To me the NAO is going to become the biggest player with the AO not far behind. We simply have to slow this pattern down because the cold air is now available but the blocking and nor'easter formation is all out of wack.

WHAT IS THE NAO? (North Atlantic Oscillation)

It's like the traffic cop of the Cold and warm weather and the H's and L's on the weather map. Slow the pattern down the cold hangs around longer and allows the storm that come up the coast to explode and BAMM you got yourself a nor'easter.

The other factor is the cold air...ala Arctic Oscillation. This feature allows waves of cold air to come down into North America to support snow. You don't want too much or the storm will not phase.

So the first 10 days of February are not really in our favor so we'll need some help from elsewhere or look past the 10th of the month.

DRUMROLL PLEASE....

FEBRUARY 1-7 CLIP & DIP

We'll see a series of Alberta Clippers from the upper Midwest to the Northeast and Mid Atlantic. I expect to see 3-4 of these clippers before the pattern switches to the Lake Cutters.

So most of the clippers cross over NY state into southern Canada but a few have gone as far south as VA and NC. So we'll get our fix of clippers the first 7 days of the month but after that things change.

FEB 8-15TH  LAKE CUTTER IS LIKE BUTTER...

 If you are in the Midwest you'll like this pattern if you are along the East Coast and like snow...you may think this is a "NO". So what is a "lake cutter"?

The storm track heads through the heart of the Great Lakes often coming from the Southwest or west coast.  I expect to see temps above normal east of Chicago and near normal west of there. Storms will be mainly rain in the east with rain to snow in the Midwest including Chicago, Milwaukee and Minneapolis. Cleveland, Cincy and Indy will also see some snow in this period.

FEB 16-22  COLD IS BACK...WITH AN EAST COAST ATTACK.

You want a nor'easter this is the period it might happen this month. We'll swing back to the semi Arctic flow except this time the now ample latent heat and moisture from the south will get into the game.  I see at least one nor'easter during this timeframe with 4"+ from DC to Boston.  This will be the "one" we use to mark this winter.

FEB 23-28

Ok lets talk a look at the end of the month. I see things calming down a bit after what could be a wild ride from Feb 16-22. A few weak system but overall temps will sit near to above average with near normal precip.

MY THINKING ON THE FEBRUARY OUTLOOK...

BOSTON TO NYC (INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND)

Above average snowfall...temps near normal (nor'easter 14-22nd)

SYRACUSE ROCHESTER BINGHAMTON BUFFALO ALBANY

Above average snowfall...temps near normal. (snow period 8th to 22nd)

PHILADELPHIA POCONOS LEHIGH VALLEY SNJ CENTRAL/NORTH NJ

Near normal snowfall...temps slightly below normal. (nor'easter 14-22nd)

DELAWARE BALTIMORE DC METRO EASTERN SHORE LANCASTER

Near to slightly below normal snowfall...temps normal (nor'easter 14-22nd)

RICHMOND TO RALEIGH NC GREENSBORO CHARLOTTE

One snow event possible of 1-4". Temps below normal

CHICAGO CLEVELAND CINCY COLUMBUS INDY PITTSBURGH

Near to perhaps a little above normal snowfall... Colder than normal

DENVER SALT LAKE CITY (COLORADO/UTAH/AZ/NM MTNS)

Above normal snowfall near normal temps (a few goes ones in Feb)

MINNEAPOLIS MILWAUKEE GREEN BAY OMAHA

Snowfall near normal temps near normal.