The one thing that stands out to me this afternoon is the fact that some many little and medium features are showing up on the models and in the pattern that the models are going to change quick a bit from day to day and run to run.

We are going into several cold periods so most of the events will be snow or no snow at this point. The February 5th event has been advertised for some time now and at this point may bring the best potential the next 10 days.

COLD WAVE #1

This is in the wake of the noah's ark event tomorrow along the east coast. We have other blogs on this event so I will not get into the rain, wind and storms since this is a winter blog.

COLD WAVE #1 is later Thursday night until Monday and the NAM GFS EURO all agree on the cold wave so the cold air will be in place from North Carolina to Maine and back through the Ohio Valley and Midwest.

BACK END SNOW THURSDAY ??

This is always a tough call and more times than not the front will clear with colder drier air moves in as the precip moves out. We have seen from Allentown PA and points north into NY PA a snowy nding but this will be a tough call until really the last minute.

GFS BACK END SNOW BELOW

EURO BACK END SNOW BELOW

NAM BACK END SNOW

 
So what do we have on the models for Thursday morning? It's interesting that we have some snow on the back end but it could be nothing more than let over cold as the moisture moves out.

The dotted blue line on the left map is th 540 snow line and the precip is in green..darker the color the more precip.

The red line on the right is the 850mb snow line at 5000 feet. Clearly all the models have the cold air rushing in from 5000 feet to the ground.

It has happen this time year as the cold rushes in so for now Allentown North to NYC...40% of snow on the back end...Philly to Baltimore 25% chance.  We'll watch if for you but the issue may be the surface temps are too warm as the precip rolls out Thursday morning.

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FRIDAY....THE LITTLE CLIPPER THAT COULD ?

It's interesting on the NAM and GFS and since this is 72 hours away it's now in play to watch. The NAM and GFS rolls a small band of high snow ratio snow on Friday with a period of light snow from PA to DC MD including DE and NJ. It's all snow so here is how the models play it out.

NAM LOOK FOR FRIDAY                     GFS LOOK FOR FRIDAY

PHILLY METRO GFS FRIDAY .11" x 12:1 = 1.3" SNOW

PHILLY METRO NAM FRIDAY .12" x 12:1 = 1.4" SNOW

ALLENTOWN GFS FRIDAY .05" x 13:1 = 0.7" SNOW 

ALLENTOWN NAM FRIDAY .00" x 13:1 = 0.0" SNOW

READING PA GFS FRIDAY .09" x 13:1 = 1.2" SNOW

READING PA NAM FRIDAY .02" x 13:1 = 0.3" SNOW

LANCASTER PA GFS FRIDAY .11" x 12:1 = 1.3" SNOW

LANCASTER PA NAM FRIDAY .09" x 12:1 =  1.1" SNOW

WILM DE GFS FRIDAY .09" x 12:1 = 1.1" SNOW

WILM DE NAM FRIDAY .17" x 12:1 = 2.0" SNOW

DOVER DE GFS FRIDAY .02" x 12:1 = .25" SNOW

DOVER DE NAM FRIDAY .08" x 12:1 = 1.00" SNOW

MILLVILLE NJ GFS FRIDAY .05" x 12:1 = 0.6" SNOW

MILLVILLE NJ NAM FRIDAY .14" x 12:1 = 1.7" SNOW

BALTIMORE GFS FRIDAY .02" x 12:1 = .25" SNOW

BALTIMORE NAM FRIDAY .05" x 12:1 = .60" SNOW

WASHINGTON DC GFS FRIDAY Flurries
WASHINGTON DC NAM FRIDAY .01" x 11:1 = .20" SNOW

MORRISTOWN NJ GFS FRIDAY .03" x 13:1 = .40" SNOW

MORRISTOWN NJ NAM FRIDAY .01" x 13:1 =  .13" SNOW

NEWARK NJ/ NYC GFS FRIDAY .03" x 12:1 = .36" SNOW

NEWARK NJ/ NYC NAM FRIDAY .01" x 12:1 = .12" SNOW

TRENTON NJ GFS FRIDAY .08" x 12:1 = 1.0" SNOW
TRENTON NJ NAM FRIDAY .01" x 12:1 = 0.1" SNOW

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...

Wednesday and Thursday are gonna be wild for some with a pop in warmth with a line of thunderstorms, heavy rain and wind. Thursday it could snow for some.

 Tomorrow & Tomorrow night a Wind Advisory...a Severe Thunderstorm Watch and a Flood Watch may be posted along the Mid Atlantic and Northeast. I expect to see temps drop pretty quick into the Thursday morning rush hour..how fast they drop will decide if we get rain to snow.  The best chance of that is Allentown to Binghamton NY over to Suburban North and Central NJ.

Thursday is a day of change with colder temps maybe a few snow showers and gusty winds. 

Friday is still a watch and wait with periods of light snow or flurries from Allentown to DC including the NJ DE MD beaches.

CLICK HERE MIKE DEFINO BLOG ON FEB 5-6 SNOW STORM