The upcoming period of weather from february first to the 20th looks very interesting. The cold will come first and looks like it will lock in until the 9th-12th of february. Blocking should set up towards the end of the period which will allow the arctic air mass to linger across eastern canada. I expect the lowest departures to be across the western great lakes, northern ontario, eastern ontario, new england and quebec. Although air masses will be cold across southern ontario, the northeast and ohio valley some modification will take place with the warm lakes. Dryness will dominate overall with some clipper activity and LES from the northern branch reinforcing the snowpack in ontario and the upper midwest/ohio valley. After this period the MJO will begin to move into phases that favor a wetter pattern and further NW storm track, which can bring some action to eastern canada, midwest and new england in the snow department. After the 20th of february the MJO will begin to propagate into phases that favor a ridge in the eastern half of north america and this lines up with my thinking. The pattern will snap fast this year by the last few days of february or beginning of march. Now remember, although departures can be warmer then normal storminess can still be a key player for the end of feb and beginning of march. I have put emphasis on march in my spring outlook as being warmer then normal but this march will not compare to last year in terms of departures.
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In terms of analog years i have been looking closely at some years and found 2003-2004 as a good match. This year had a neutral ENSO, warm PDO and AMO. Its not so much the SST's that had a perfect match but the MJO was very similar with the same type of movement but one month earlier. These high amplitude waves are common in la nada years and we are about to see this unfold. Keep your eye on the red line which shows the january MJO wave in 2004 looking very similar to our current wave.
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This is what january looked like as a whole:
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Ethan, thanks for the forecast updates this winter. I'm just a lowly Weather enthusiast that is amazed how you guys can extrapolate From past anomalies, figure in climate change and come up with fairly Accurate long range focasts.
It's important to remember that the MJO medium/long range forecast is rare to absolutely verify and generally is wrong to some degree, the past long range forecasts of the MJO and where it actually propagated are proof enough of why that should not be part of a comprehensive diagnosis of what the medium and long range 500 mb soundings will look like, let alone temperatures at the surface. Rather it should be interpreted, with continuity, as a possible factor in a future pattern (past 2 weeks), it's motion is highly subject to change though.
Yes, I understand. And I'm not saying it WILL be wrong. I'm just saying, if you've been tracking those temperature outlooks prior to just the last 2 months, you'd find many inconsistencies over the years.
Yes, they were correct with the outlook for Dec and most of Jan they were correct. And many many people are showing many reasons why March and the 2nd half of FEB will be a torch. The MJO phase it goes in will give us a cold first half, but warm 2nd half of FEB
Tim, do you really have any faith in these long range outlooks anymore? I think we have several decent chances for accumulating snow during early-mid February. Beyond that, you might as well throw darts to make a prediction.
Remember the atlantic isnt too far away from our geo location thats what hapened with the last storm. It dried up then re-engergized once it hit the atlantic plus there a stronger low associated with this one. Yes it will dry up alil on the backside but it will resaturate on the frontside now what the game changer is how this front re-orientates itself. It may go negative as evidence on the soutjern edge of the front. Lets see how this one developes and evolves. Intresting !!!
Hey are you guys observing what the 12UTCNAM just put out for wednesdays Low/Front combo. Its a possible Neg tilting front with around 1 inch of QPF on and after the 540 line. Need a couple o more frames on the NAM but it looking intresting for Wed. Looks overdone but you never know with longwave troughs and fronts especially neg tilting ones with lows attached inside of 100 hrs
Got a link to that? Even if it is heavy snow, backend snow never works even when the models show it. To me, and to accuweather folks and weather, it looks like thunderstorms along a front with no precip behind it. Trust me, there will be no snow associated with this.
No no farmer Alminac. Have you seen the 12UTCNAM it has rain going to heavy snow as the front passes. The Lows are farther south riding the front. More artic air penetrating durring the frontal passge with .75 to 1.00 Qpf at or after the 540 line. It looks overdone but i sure hope this verifies because it will defend what i said about the post frontal axis snows.