So it's time to watch the observations vs. forecasts in the Upper Midwest> did the NWS up there get it right ? Is the storm an overachiever ?
Right now the dominate storm is the Northern branch but that was expected at this hour. Duluth MN is expecting 4-8" or 5-9" with moderate snow there now. They are getting a 30 to 40:1 snow ration...that's crazy.
Radar looks good to me as it continues to fill in South and East into Minnesota.
Yeah virga is a major issue. The storm on accuweather/intellicast radars looks very impressive with a big shield of precip. Precip is breaking out across the tn valley as the surface low down south gets its act together very slowly. Not much of that precip is hitting the ground very dry air. Hopefully we don't have that problem over here, id love a 3" snowfall right now.
I am so bothered by lowering my 3 days running forecast of 3-5" for the five county area of southeast PA to 2-4" that I'm going to go with 2-5". At the very least, the rest of the five county area that was left out of the winter weather advisories will be included before long, there may be snow advisories or even winter storm watches issued there too depending on what happens over the coming hours. Again, I do not forecast a snow event to accumulate higher than the NWS forecast if it is unlikely just because I like a good snow event, the current pattern and hard data are telling a different story than "a coating to an inch or two."
This is now a nowcasting situation. The radar is filling in nicely over the upper mid-west and cyclogeneses will occur soon over the south, where that happens is key as far as how soon the systems phase, I can say though, that the five county area of southeast PA is looking at at least 2-4" with isolated areas getting a tiny bit more, however, very minor changes could lead to very large increases in accumulation.