For starters the model is now seeing the signs in the E PAC with pumping up the northern stream ridge. This allows more amplification and a stronger deeper trough that forces a low to develop closer to the coast.  Still not where we want it but it is the trends...

The ridge is weaker in northern stream and does not show much precip make it north of NC/S VA. This was the 12z run today of the NAM.

NEW NAM does something we have been waiting to see from this model and that is a stronger ridge.  This leads to a stronger and deeper trough with significant precip making its way northward.

The coastal develops much sooner and throws back some nice qpf for DE into VA but still too late for others to benefit.  The key here is the west shift compared to the 12z run that is below for the same time frame:

In the frame above the Jersey shore went from nothing to a trace to 2" in a model that changed that much in 6hrs.  With data still coming in from the PAC for tonight's runs it seems reasonable to expect this trend to continue.

GFS

The 18z GFS ends the trend by missing the northern stream apmlification, other than that it still hits the area with a light snow event.  But if it amps up in tonights runs we will see a better result.