All models are switching gears as the Pacific energy comes inland.  A jump in the models is expected as we continue to get better data coming in from the Pacific.  Tonight will be a new set of runs with much better data but coming down the home stretch there is good news for snow lovers showing up on all models.

First I am going to do my best John Madden impression on WV imagery:

Two lows in around Alaska, the first one is weakening and retrograding towards the Aleutians and will merge with the main low to its southwest.  The convection nw of HI caused this weakening and will result in ridging to take the place of the strong PAC jet.  This was modeled but some can make an argument it happened quicker as main energy appears more amped up and slightly slower. 

But we cannot jump to conclusions because the trough will split leaving a big piece meandering in the SE PAC with the upper level low.  This has a tremendous amount of ascent form the southern jet *models are now picking up on*.  

Now to the trends:

Canadian

New Canadian is much more impressive compared to previous runs.  It was a noticeable shift aloft and the other models followed.

GFS

The biggest difference can be seen at the sfc with the precip shield.  Notice the mount of blue that developed in the latest run in response to the more amplified northern stream.  In this situation going from 0.1-0.2 qpf could be 2-4" as most of the areas will be below -10C just above the ground.  

NAM

This big change allows the ridge to build back west in the southern stream opening the gate for the northern stream to come down.  But the northern stream does not respond on the NAM.  If the next model run is more favorable in the northern stream like a few other models we could see a very interesting solution.

GFS ENSEMBLES:

The newer GFS ensembles came in with more qpf and support the trend.

Conclusion

We have the trend we want to have going into the final 54 hours and we are not far off from seeing a significant winter weather event.  With temps very cold aloft the snow will be very powdery and favor a high ratio.  We could be talking 20-30:1 ratios!