Models reloading 9:30 am update

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Models reloading 9:30 am update

Good morning all...

So I looked over the Euro a few hours ago and it's starting to add back precip for the Friday night event. I'm not a big fan of the GFS and NAM off model runs just about 3 hours or so ago but the GFS started adding precip to the mix. Now remember as fast as the models lost this storm they can bring it back and this may be the first hints of that this morning.

The weather map is very busy as in a weak system tomorrow with snow showers and flurries slides through at MD VA. This brings in even more cold air for Friday. The southwest is now watching a significant system for Friday night and Saturday and it could bring over .50" to .75" of precip out there (AZ). It looks to cut away from the main jet so add this into the model madness and well this becomes what the HPC (Hydro Prediction Center) said yesterday....tough on the models

Northern and Southern branch systems are really rough on model guidance. I think we'll get a better clue on which direction we are going once the 12z/7am info (9:30am-1:30pm all models come in) and again tonight 0z/7pm (9:30pm-1:30am).

MODEL GUIDANCE QUICK LOOK THIS MORNING...

THE NAVY NOGAPS IS 3-5" WITH MORE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. NOT A BIG FOLLOWER OF THIS MODEL BUT DO LOOK AT IT 48-72 HOURS OUT FOR TRACKS AND SNOW LINE.

THE UKMET HAS ONE STORM ONE SOLUTION AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING OK WITH THE IDEA OF A STORM PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. TAKE THIS TRACK EARLIER IN THE WINTER IT'S RAIN BUT IT HAS COLD SUPPORT...LOTS OF COLD.

THE EURO HAS A BAND OF SNOW FROM THE WEST AND IT'S IN THE RANGE OF .15" TO .20" LIQUID RIGHT NOW...UP FROM THE EARLIER RUN. THIS IS NOT A BAD SIGN AS WE ENTER INTO THE "FINAL COUNTDOWN " ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

REMEMBER THE MODELS ALL WINTER LOST STORMS AND GAVE THEM BACK AND VISE VERSA SO WHY WOULD THIS STORM BE ANY DIFFERENT.

THE GFS HAS TWO WEAK STORMS ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH ON THE PICTURE TO THE LEFT...IT DOES PHASE AT THE COAST BUT IS IT TOO LATE ON THE MAP TO THE RIGHT ?

Blog started by rob guarino , on 122 days ago

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Pgravy

Oh the time honored winter storm tradition: the overly optimistic young bucks vs. the seasoned- curmudgeon old bucks. I love it!

122 days ago

Tyler

hahahah thats good!

122 days ago

36InchesOnTheWay

Mark A's optimism vs. Marcus' pessimism is like the JMA vs GFS. Who will win???

122 days ago

Mark A

Btw, this is very reminiscent of the blizzard 2 years ago. Not that It will happen but the models acted up the same way.

122 days ago

Mark A

Nah I dont believe you Marcus. This could be a trend (or not). Time will tell.

122 days ago

Marcus wild

Mark A.. 5-10" is gone. Completely.

122 days ago

Ryan

The JMA is always a hit,lol. Like i said, if the CMC and EURO takes steps toward it, then ok maybe, but it's going to take more than 2 GFS runs to convince me

122 days ago

Mark A

Ryan, the models are playing catch up with ukie and JMA. Those models caught something important that the gfs and euro didnt.

122 days ago

Mark A

Yeah I live in NYC so 3-5 is good.

122 days ago

Marcus wild

You guys are getting a little ahead of yourselfs here. 3-6" is very unlikely.. NAM spit out nothing and the gfs 1-3" max. It's taken baby steps to its adjustment point, not back to being close to the solution from 2 days ago. As much as I'd like it too because I called this a lock 2 days ago just to torn down 12 hours later... Not looking likely that anyone north of dc sees over 3" max. Well see what the GGEM/euro do... But I expect something between the nam and the gfs.

122 days ago

Ryan

Some of you guys are getting too excited for what's probably going to be 1-3" at best. Just because the last two GFS runs were slightly better, doesn't mean that's a trend. Two runs isn't a trend and it's only one model. The 12z NAM is awful and brings no precip. The 12z GFS is still only 1-3" except for NJ shore,NYC, and LI where it's about 3-5". If the CMC and EURO both show steps toward more snow fine, but until then don't get too excited.

122 days ago

Mark A

Everyone go take a look at that GFS again and loop it. It is so close to phasing completely. If the next run shows that then you might have to throw in 6-10. Or maybe 5-8 to be on the safe side.

122 days ago

snowtrain

hey if that works for you then it's all that matters :) Myself I prefer to try to maintain reason and then if things look better I will build upon that.

122 days ago

Mark A

Snowtrain, It is better to get hyped up because there is always a chance!

122 days ago

Heat Island 718

12zGfs a tad north than the 12zNam, its dry comming of the the coast at the mason dixon precipt north from the center. Philly and nyc loose out delmarva 3 inches max. One thing to note the only reason there isnt a phase is the northern stream axis pushes the storm out it needs to be out of the way of that in order to ride north. The vorticies arent that far apart from eachother in reasonable distance again to flat of flow offshore. But maybe if the northern jet maybe a tasd weaker than modeled that why the slight shift north. It needs to be watched ! My call stands no go for friday. Flurries for most of us except for delmarva they may recieve a quick 3 inch burst like the last storm did for some in our region. Therefore its check and checkmate in 1 move the Euro will decide it for me .!

122 days ago

snowtrain

look guys it's still 1-3" for everyone however it showing that it is trying to pop a coastal closer to the coast. This has in no means switched back to what it showed 2 days ago yet. Is it a step in a "better" direction yes, but don't get yourselves all worked up just yet.

122 days ago

Tyler

i would be happy with a 3-6 inch storm, which is reasonable with the ratios..just need a little more QPF develping on these trends into tonight. But notice as the moisutre comes closer to land the american models are starting to pick up on the outcome better..just like a few people said they would and nobody believed ;)

122 days ago

36InchesOnTheWay

Riggins will be back any minute to defend himself.

Anyway, with this latest GFS run, PERHAPS, as like many storms in the past....the models show a big storm initially, back off, then meet somewhere in the middle.

122 days ago

Tyler

yea they dont have patience and jumped off the bridge to soon, oh well lol.

122 days ago

Mark A

The models have switched roles. Your right 36inchesontheway except there is no sarcasm its true.

Models reloading 9:30 am update

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