So I looked over the Euro a few hours ago and it's starting to add back precip for the Friday night event. I'm not a big fan of the GFS and NAM off model runs just about 3 hours or so ago but the GFS started adding precip to the mix. Now remember as fast as the models lost this storm they can bring it back and this may be the first hints of that this morning.
The weather map is very busy as in a weak system tomorrow with snow showers and flurries slides through at MD VA. This brings in even more cold air for Friday. The southwest is now watching a significant system for Friday night and Saturday and it could bring over .50" to .75" of precip out there (AZ). It looks to cut away from the main jet so add this into the model madness and well this becomes what the HPC (Hydro Prediction Center) said yesterday....tough on the models
Northern and Southern branch systems are really rough on model guidance. I think we'll get a better clue on which direction we are going once the 12z/7am info (9:30am-1:30pm all models come in) and again tonight 0z/7pm (9:30pm-1:30am).
MODEL GUIDANCE QUICK LOOK THIS MORNING...
THE NAVY NOGAPS IS 3-5" WITH MORE THE FURTHER SOUTH YOU GO. NOT A BIG FOLLOWER OF THIS MODEL BUT DO LOOK AT IT 48-72 HOURS OUT FOR TRACKS AND SNOW LINE.
THE UKMET HAS ONE STORM ONE SOLUTION AND THIS MODEL HAS BEEN DOING OK WITH THE IDEA OF A STORM PLOWING RIGHT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC. TAKE THIS TRACK EARLIER IN THE WINTER IT'S RAIN BUT IT HAS COLD SUPPORT...LOTS OF COLD.
THE EURO HAS A BAND OF SNOW FROM THE WEST AND IT'S IN THE RANGE OF .15" TO .20" LIQUID RIGHT NOW...UP FROM THE EARLIER RUN. THIS IS NOT A BAD SIGN AS WE ENTER INTO THE "FINAL COUNTDOWN " ZONE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
REMEMBER THE MODELS ALL WINTER LOST STORMS AND GAVE THEM BACK AND VISE VERSA SO WHY WOULD THIS STORM BE ANY DIFFERENT.
THE GFS HAS TWO WEAK STORMS ONE NORTH AND ONE SOUTH ON THE PICTURE TO THE LEFT...IT DOES PHASE AT THE COAST BUT IS IT TOO LATE ON THE MAP TO THE RIGHT ?
You guys are getting a little ahead of yourselfs here. 3-6" is very unlikely.. NAM spit out nothing and the gfs 1-3" max. It's taken baby steps to its adjustment point, not back to being close to the solution from 2 days ago. As much as I'd like it too because I called this a lock 2 days ago just to torn down 12 hours later... Not looking likely that anyone north of dc sees over 3" max. Well see what the GGEM/euro do... But I expect something between the nam and the gfs.
Some of you guys are getting too excited for what's probably going to be 1-3" at best. Just because the last two GFS runs were slightly better, doesn't mean that's a trend. Two runs isn't a trend and it's only one model. The 12z NAM is awful and brings no precip. The 12z GFS is still only 1-3" except for NJ shore,NYC, and LI where it's about 3-5". If the CMC and EURO both show steps toward more snow fine, but until then don't get too excited.
12zGfs a tad north than the 12zNam, its dry comming of the the coast at the mason dixon precipt north from the center. Philly and nyc loose out delmarva 3 inches max. One thing to note the only reason there isnt a phase is the northern stream axis pushes the storm out it needs to be out of the way of that in order to ride north. The vorticies arent that far apart from eachother in reasonable distance again to flat of flow offshore. But maybe if the northern jet maybe a tasd weaker than modeled that why the slight shift north. It needs to be watched ! My call stands no go for friday. Flurries for most of us except for delmarva they may recieve a quick 3 inch burst like the last storm did for some in our region. Therefore its check and checkmate in 1 move the Euro will decide it for me .!
i would be happy with a 3-6 inch storm, which is reasonable with the ratios..just need a little more QPF develping on these trends into tonight. But notice as the moisutre comes closer to land the american models are starting to pick up on the outcome better..just like a few people said they would and nobody believed ;)