We are seeing two different solutions and trends showing up here on the models. The main part of this event is the development of the southern low and how strong and or sheared it gets as it pushes eastward.
1) European has progressively shown a weaker ridge resulting in the northern stream shearing the southern low more. If it continues to do this it will end up with a GFS like solution. However, current pattern argues against this trend.
2) UKMET and NAM don't necessarily build a strong ridge but show the southern stream stronger and more developed allowing a more organized system. This pulls the northern stream down resulting in a more organized southern low with a lot of moisture.
1) Euro Trend - From top down the images are the previous 3 runs of the Euro with the dotted lines representing the 573 and 576dm. You can clearly see the model has been trending weaker and more progressive.
This has led to less qpf to the north of the system as the southern low takes longer to get going because of the shear felt from the faster more progressive northern stream. The euro ensemble mean came in with a sfc low a little farther north than the operational but had a weird look to it like a lot of disagreement was being felt amongst members.
Notice the individual members are mostly in agreement with a stronger ridge, but they factor in the outliers south of the operational where less agreement is seen. Same goes for the northern stream where most members want to dig it down farther south but the mean ends up to the north.
What does this mean?
The Euro ensembles say the south trend on the Euro with the qpf should reverse it self at least slightly in the next model run.
2) UKMET and NAM strong southern stream
The UKMET shows a nice ridge allowing the interaction with a stronger southern low and a big system. This is a big time snow storm.
The GGEM ENSEMBLES- Notice how much higher most are!
MJO PHASE 8 COMPOSITE IN JANUARY
MJO PHASE 7 COMPOSITE IN JANUARY
The IR above shows we are in a phase 7 to 8ish. The strong southern jet extending west of Mexico with another branch through the Gulf of Mexico is a key component to this forecast as it agrees with the composites above that a deep trough will establish itself in the Eastern CONUS with a ridge out west. This argues for the models to adjust towards a more amplified solution.
With the tropical forcing setting up I would expect models to trend more amplified with a stronger southern low and a more qpf filled system. Latest models have backed off but the ensembles clearly suggest (along with the observations) that this one is far from over. Current WV imagery does suggest this incoming energy does look more impressive than modeled. And the southern branch associated with this system will allow for a more southern stream system just by eyeing the ascent downstream.
Notice how I can see the phase 7-8 of the MJO on WV imagery and apply it to the forecast. We can clearly see the convection NW of HI building in response to the Upper level low near the Aleutian Islands. This teleconnects to a big ridge about to form in the Western US. The main system extends from the Gulf of AK to off of Mexico. This will split and move inland being our main event. How much of the southern low gets cut off? Models might be having trouble because I see a lot of lifting spreading east that models did not have but time will tell how significant that is. Best model runs of this system will come tomorrow night so don't give up hope yet!
You guys need to buck up, put your big boy pants on and stop whining. The models are all over the place, missing data, etc., as Rob and Mike have stated directly and through their model explanations. While it's exciting to think that we may finally get a "real" snowstorm, we have to be patient and let the scenarios/models play out. Whenever the models have been in consensus a week out they always shift and cause hand wringing and teeth grinding. You are going to mentally and emotionally wear yourselves out. Relax and think positive snow thoughts!!
Ya know Tim.. I was just thinking about that a couple minutes ago. I was like " man, last night we were sitting pretty with a 6-12 storm on our hands and maybe more." Now, this... It's so sad and what makes it bad is it can get even worse, and i'm sure it will. I don't want to have to rely on the JMA and ukie model for a snow storm. At that point it's over.
Now, with that rant being over. Sure things can change but here is some food for thought. The models have all that drop data that the planes dropped in the pacific. Notice when they started to change... when that was dropped in. Unfortunately I don't think this is a blip, it's the real deal. I'm all for being positive but you also have to know when to throw in the towel.
I am more disappointed than mad right now, these are by far the worst future weather models I have ever seen. They had such good agreement for a 4-8 6-10 inch system to go to 1-2 inches. I rather it not snow cause its really just a slap in the damn face.
At the Winter Weather Workshop I spoke about the importance of a Southern Jet...
No Southern Jet involvement no big storm...
Also the NAO being neutral also argues against a big storm..
The PNA well that is the kicker see here in this this situation if the PNA then goes neutral all is lost and we see the end of our cold as we see it now... and then to a zonal flow starting with Friday..
HOWEVER WITH THE COLD AS WE HAVE IT YOU ALMOST ALWAYS GET A SNOW EVENT BEFORE IT WARMS!!
Keep your fingers crossed...but for now I will keep playing with my Yo-Yo... because that is what the models are doing to me tonight playing me like a Yo-Yo...
Guys, I hope I am wrong and we get a big storm. But at this point the major models (Euro, gfs, nam) all say this is a minor event. Run after run if they keep saying that we can forget this storm for something big. 1-3 inches region wide will be the call, hey i guess thats better than nothing right???
I mean of course I hope he is right And yes this I'd not over but anything other than " this doesn't look good folks" for a big storm is somewhat wishful thinking. Nam gfs and euro all say a small storm