MODEL SCOREBOARD

NAM- 4-7" for DC/DE/MD/NJ/E PA toward NYC. Jackpot is DE/Extreme S NJ with 7+" *Model not recommended*

GFS- Trace-2" for everyone but coastal areas (2-3") *Model not recommended*

GGEM- Widespread 6-12+" from Philadelphia-Trenton-Southeast PA-Much of VA-DC-DE-MD-Most of NJ....Areas outside highest qpf (NW NJ-NYC-NE PA) the ratios help out big time for a 4-7" event

EURO-  1-2" for many 2-4" for Philly south.

UKMET- Major Snow Storm for N VA/DC/MD/DE/NJ/E PA/NYC/NY/New England

NAM

NAM is like the GFS and flatter with the ridge in the Western US.  The model is very poor in this range and I am only using it in this model discussion to show how easy it is for the GFS to switch.  The NAM is flatter with the ridge but stronger with the s/w resulting in a winter storm for a good part of the area.

This model is not favored as is the GFS because of one key reason:

If you look at the daily charts we are in a phase 7 today, but current IR imagery says we are nto far off from a phase 8.  So even if the MJO throws a curve ball and jumps from phase 7 to 8, it really does not mean much of a change in the going forecast for the European model from the last 3 runs to be right. Both favor high heights over the Western US that the GFS and NAM do not see!

Above we have the signature of the phase 7 with convection along and south of the Equator from 140E to 120W with a blow up of convection around the Philippines.  Phase 8ish comes in over South America and Brazil extending over to Africa and a fire up of convection in the Western Indian Ocean.  

I showed a phase 7 in January yesterday so here is a phase 8 composite in January:

The models are having a tough time in the Pacific and that is why we are seeing disagreement.  When this energy comes inland we will see the models converge on a solution.  Using observations we believe the models will converge on a major snow storm and not a sheared out system.  The NAM and GFS wil make a jump but we have another day until that happens.

GFS

Canadian

This solution on the GGEM is possible and the important thing to stress here is this is not a locally heavy snowfall event.  It is a widespread event that many are going to share in.  Notice VA gets slammed on this run with heavy qpf and ratios closer to  10:1 while areas across NE PA get lighter qpf with ratios that could exceed 20-25:1! So even with bullseyes of over a foot possible in the lower Middle Atlantic we could still see amounts around 7-8" away from the best qpf. 

UKMET

Big time snow storm for many and this is the reuslt of a slightly stronger ridge (not as strong as I would like to see) but the favorable interaction with southern low results in a big time event.  

EURO

Verbatim the Euro is a miss for many but a very different solution from the GFS.  The ridge is still amped up but the moisture is not there on this run.  The ratios are still very impressive and this could still be a 3-5" snow event despite poor qpf on the Euro for Philadelphia.

Conclusion

Models are having a tough time with the Pacific.  We have to remember the observations here.  The MJO is phase 7-8 is all we should be focusing on and that points towards a bigger storm as shown on previous runs of the Euro.  The active southern stream will most likely not lead to that much suppression and this means a lot more with a pos NAO because not much can prevent it from coming closer to the coast.  

Do not panic!  My guess is models will come back up with the snowfall amounts tonight or tomorrow afternoon.  Going with observations and not models.