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Ok so I'm confined to the wifi GO-GO here at 32,000 feet en route to Phoenix for the next 4-5 hours so i'll keep updating as long as the mac book does not run out of power. I'm going from 18 to 81 today so the sweat shirt goes to tee shirt in a few hours as near record temps invade the desert southwest all week. 

Ok so this riun should give us a few clues to where we are going with the storm come this Friday. You may ask what storm we'll here goes.

WHAT: WINTER STORM (some ice/sleet possible DC to Dover South)

WHEN: 9-11 am Philly Metro-SNJ-DE-Central NJ-Lehigh Valley

WHEN: 12 noon-2pm North Jersey-NYC-LI-Poconos-Lower Hudson

WHEN: 7-9am Washington DC-Baltimore-Richmond Area

HOW MUCH SNOW: a general 4-8" right now...subjecty to change

SNOW TYPE: powder...fluffy start temps 14-19 degrees Friday AM

MODEL UPDATE TIMES TODAY... (all eastern time)

NAM 12z/7am about JUST IN 

GFS 12z/7am about 10:30am

Canadian 12z/7am about 12 noon

Euro 12z/7am about 1:30pm 

CLICK HERE FOR MIKE DEFINO MODEL UPDATE & SPIN ON STORM

CLICK HERE FOR ROB GUARINO MODEL RUN FROM LAST NIGHT

The NAM is coming in now with the cold and snow. It slows down the storm a bit and is only through 7pm Friday. So here is the raw data info just in...

Philadelphia .34" x 13:1 ratio = 4" of snow on ground by 7pm

Wilmington .38" x 13:1 ratio = 4.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Dover/Baltimore .57" x 12:1 = 6.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm 

Washington .48" x 12:1 ratio= 5" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Richmond .33" x 10:1 ratio = 3.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Allentown .23" x 14:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Reading .27" x 13:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Lancaster .31" x 13:1 ratio = 3.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Millville NJ .50" x 12:1 ratio = 5.5" of snow on the gorund by 7pm

Atlantic City .48" x 12:1 ratio = 5.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Trenton .26" x 13:1  ratio = 3" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Newark NJ .20" x 14:1 ratio = 2.5" of snow on the gorund by 7pm

NYC Metro .19" x 14:1 ratio = 2.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm

Poconos .20" x 15:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the grounf by 7pm

Scranton .21" x 15:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm

The GFS has been on and off with this storm so we have to watch to see what may be going on here or is this the model that continues to go against the other models?

The UKMET has a nice snow situation come Friday..that LOW is a bit inland vs. the other tracks so we'll see how the adjusting goes the next 48 hours. 

The CMC Canadian has a storm track with snow but nudged a smidge south on this run. The main idea is that the storm is there and it's gonna tweak on run to run north and south. The models overall are in pretty good agreement on the track.

The timing is a bit off with the GFS but many more model runs to go and we'll see tomorrow how the low in the Mid Mississippi Valley shows up vs. the other one in the upper plains.

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...

The EURO is the only model not updated so we'll get a full scorecard in a few hours. My thinking is snow from DC to NYC but how much will fall kinda sits in the 3-5" vs. 4-8" right now.

I see no real change on this model run just a few nudges north/south. The timing is a little slower more like after 10am before 1pm in the Delaware/Lehigh Valleys...8-11am in Baltimore and DC and in the afternoon in North Jersey and NYC.