Ok so I'm confined to the wifi GO-GO here at 32,000 feet en route to Phoenix for the next 4-5 hours so i'll keep updating as long as the mac book does not run out of power. I'm going from 18 to 81 today so the sweat shirt goes to tee shirt in a few hours as near record temps invade the desert southwest all week.
Ok so this riun should give us a few clues to where we are going with the storm come this Friday. You may ask what storm we'll here goes.
WHAT: WINTER STORM (some ice/sleet possible DC to Dover South)
WHEN: 9-11 am Philly Metro-SNJ-DE-Central NJ-Lehigh Valley
WHEN: 12 noon-2pm North Jersey-NYC-LI-Poconos-Lower Hudson
WHEN: 7-9am Washington DC-Baltimore-Richmond Area
HOW MUCH SNOW: a general 4-8" right now...subjecty to change
SNOW TYPE: powder...fluffy start temps 14-19 degrees Friday AM
MODEL UPDATE TIMES TODAY... (all eastern time)
NAM 12z/7am about JUST IN
GFS 12z/7am about 10:30am
Canadian 12z/7am about 12 noon
Euro 12z/7am about 1:30pm
CLICK HERE FOR MIKE DEFINO MODEL UPDATE & SPIN ON STORM
The NAM is coming in now with the cold and snow. It slows down the storm a bit and is only through 7pm Friday. So here is the raw data info just in...
Philadelphia .34" x 13:1 ratio = 4" of snow on ground by 7pm
Wilmington .38" x 13:1 ratio = 4.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Dover/Baltimore .57" x 12:1 = 6.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Washington .48" x 12:1 ratio= 5"of snow on the ground by 7pm
Richmond .33" x 10:1 ratio = 3.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Allentown .23" x 14:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Reading .27" x 13:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Lancaster .31" x 13:1 ratio = 3.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Millville NJ .50" x 12:1 ratio = 5.5" of snow on the gorund by 7pm
Atlantic City .48" x 12:1 ratio = 5.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Trenton .26" x 13:1 ratio = 3"of snow on the ground by 7pm
Newark NJ .20" x 14:1 ratio = 2.5" of snow on the gorund by 7pm
NYC Metro .19" x 14:1 ratio = 2.5" of snow on the ground by 7pm
Poconos .20" x 15:1 ratio = 3.0"of snow on the grounf by 7pm
Scranton .21" x 15:1 ratio = 3.0" of snow on the ground by 7pm
The GFS has been on and off with this storm so we have to watch to see what may be going on here or is this the model that continues to go against the other models?
The UKMET has a nice snow situation come Friday..that LOW is a bit inland vs. the other tracks so we'll see how the adjusting goes the next 48 hours.
The CMC Canadian has a storm track with snow but nudged a smidge south on this run. The main idea is that the storm is there and it's gonna tweak on run to run north and south. The models overall are in pretty good agreement on the track.
The timing is a bit off with the GFS but many more model runs to go and we'll see tomorrow how the low in the Mid Mississippi Valley shows up vs. the other one in the upper plains.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
The EURO is the only model not updated so we'll get a full scorecard in a few hours. My thinking is snow from DC to NYC but how much will fall kinda sits in the 3-5" vs. 4-8" right now.
I see no real change on this model run just a few nudges north/south. The timing is a little slower more like after 10am before 1pm in the Delaware/Lehigh Valleys...8-11am in Baltimore and DC and in the afternoon in North Jersey and NYC.
Well 3 runs of the gfs...and now the euro and the GGEM trending south..it's most likely only a matter of time until the GGEM goes dry and flat with the gfs and euro. I'm holding steady for 4-8" still.... But at this time it's not looking very likely anymore.
00z tonight has the best sampling so far and 12z tomorrow even better. After that its pretty much game over for anymore trends most likely.
Some of you guys have preached not to take the models to the bank, it's only tuesday and we're still 3 days away from the REAL storm. Now since everyone has seen the Euro, some of you who preached patience are ready to jump off a bridge.. With that said, do we take this with a grain of salt, or is this the beginning of the end of this storm's potential?
Marcus, I hear ya....its a crap shoot right now. I just have a feeling about the pattern we are in and the storms have gone south or have been suppressed. That is my worry. If neither happen....love the 5-8 inches for all..