GFS- 2-4" of snow for many in VA/MD/DE/NJ/PA/NYC/New England. We say throw this run out because of the progressive bias being dispayed. Check below for details
****Euro- Big hit for many again. Heavier on qpf slightly and further north slightly. But tracks of low are similar to 12z. Widespread 7-12" VA/DC/MD/DE/E PA/NJ/NYC/ New England*** Model of Choice
GGEM- Major Snow Storm. 8-12+" in Philly/DC/Northern DE/NJ/E PA/NYC (details coming shortly)
UKMET- Strong low inland. Big snow northern Middle Atlantic. Philly is questionable because of the increments being 24hours in this range and limited temp profiles. We shave until tomorrow night until details for this model.
GFS Ensembles- Wetter than operational GFS. Widespread 4-7".
Euro Ensembles- Agree with operational Euro!
GGEM Ensembles- Check Back
The NAM is coming in now and we will entertain everyone with the result, but it is important to stress that the NAM is not a model to look into at this range. Between 60-84hrs on the NAM the model will probably start off way north and adjust towards the other global models at 60hrs. It does this with every storm so we will take it off the scoreboard until we are within 60hrs.
Previous runs of the 12z suite showed a split between a more northern track of the GFS and GGEM and the southern track of the Euro. The Euro was a big time snow event for VA/DC/DE/MD/NJ/E PA/NYC/Southern New England. Euro ensembles supported the operational run and to some extent the GFS ensembles did also (south of op GFS). So tonight we are going to be looking for the models to shift south towards the European.
***South trend in this blog is referring to the global models coming around to a colder European solution. A south trend still brings very good snow to VA/DC/DE/MD/NJ/E PA/NYC/Southern New England.****
As Expected the NAM is trending towards the European model and the south trend. We can see this clearly when comparing the 12z NAM to the latest NAM.
Final Thoughts on the NAM: The change in the 12hrs from the previous run are expected from the NAM. The system is much further south on the newer run and coming in closer to the European model. This would mean a much colder solution with more snow across much of the area.
The PV is stronger and more defined in the new run showing the presence of colder air in place. The NAM is seeing the cold air and not kicking it out as quick. This makes sense and we expect the other models showing a warmer solution to come around also in tonight's run.
The GFS comes around on one aspect of the 00z's and that is the cold air winning out. However, the system is north and this is because the northern stream does not dig down. The ridge out west needs to be amplified to bring down the northern stream system and meet with the southern low. Without this the southern low gets sheared out and the northern low is the primary. The GFS hasshifted the other way on this and the European was favored because of its strong ridge. In a MJO phase 7 the signal is strong for an amplified ridge so we are not puttin gtoo much into this run.
The reason why we are not believing the GFS is the MJO composite for a phase 7:
Conclusion on GFS: Progressive bias is showing up on GFS. If all other models come in with this solution than we will change our tune, but that is unlikely. A lot of observations currently support a strong ridge and more amplified northern stream. The progressive GFS shears out the southern low. The GFS does fix its idea of the cold and does not show it budging much. A correction to the ridge will allow a much bigger snow storm than the 2-4" modeled. ***Throw the GFS out**
UKMET is very strong and looks warm. We cannot tell since the 850mb temps only go to 72hrs! But notice the confluence in New England. This will force a redevelopment situation with a low over NC/VA most likely. If I had to interpret this further I would say a big snow event for someone near Philly on northward. With that strong of a low warm air would come in but the arctic air is not budging that much and confluence will keep cold air in at lower levels. This model has been overdeveloping this low inland and it seems like models are trying to steer away from that, so will see where the GGEM and Euro take us tonight.
Wow! Major Snow Storm for the Middle Atlantic into the Northeast. This could be 12+" for some areas in NJ/LI/E PA/N DE/DC. The major difference from the GFS is the ridge out west. The ridge is very amped and as a result we see a much bigger system. The cold air not budging is key here again as the 540 line shifts south and redevelopment is forced off the coast.
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN QPF FOR STORM
Ensemble mean has come in a lot wetter than the operational GFS. I am sure we will still see a big amount of disagreement amongst individual members but the theme continues that the operational is not getting support.
Widespread 7-12" snow storm for DC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/E PA/NYC/New England
One last thing, they didn't get the nickname "innaccuweather" for nothing, they live and die on the GFS which at this point has tons of problems. They're forecast of 1 to 2 inches on Friday is beyond dumb. Several other models are going with 5 to 6 times that and some, much more. I'll give a forecast tomorrow and we'll see who's right. Goodnight all, JPM.
Guy's and Gal's, I have insomnia but I'm going to try to go to bed and get some sleep. I will issue a forecast tomorrow and since my forecasts are 7% more accurate then the NWS for 3 years running there shouldn't be any problems. Goodnight all; JPM.
Thank you SgtSnow, I was a meteorology major when I started college at 16, as you've likely read, I am going to use the G.I. bill to go back to college for either a masters or doctorial degree in meteorology. I'd like to add you as a friend, would that be alright?
Hello John. I saw your posts and assumed you had been a member for a while since you displayed more than basic knowledge. This site is the 3rd evolution and several original members have had to change their screen names so there is some confusion. Anyway welcome.
I found it interesting that some were saying that the NAO near neutral, on it's way to slightly positive might be bad for a major snow storm, I say that because the NAO was nearly identical going to almost exactly the same place (slightly negative moving to slightly positive) at the time of the 1979 "Presidents Day" storm.
I was in Sag Harbor, New York on the east end of long island in Southampton; (I'm not rich by any stretch of the imagination, my grandmother bought the house there in 1955 and we rode it out with her, I miss her, she passed away at 86 while I was in Iraq). A 80 to 90 foot tall maple tree was uprooted from the adjacent property and crashed through her kitchen, that was some storm.
John, good for you! I was in the Outer Banks when Hurricane Bob came really close to hitting there and we were stupid enough to stay. Anyway, good luck with your future goals. I was reading your comments by the way. I have a passion for weather as well, and I learn a lot from coming on this site. Mike, Kevin, Rob and gang do a really good job of explaining things on this site....
I didn't think anyone was ignoring my posts, from what I've read there seems to be a lot of great people here. I am going to use the G.I. bill to go back to college and finish what I started and get a masters degree in meteorology, I would already have it but when you go into college at t6 years old and start partying and doing stupid 16/17 year old stuff it's easy to not complete what you intended to. That said, I'm 32 years old and since age 6, the love I have for meteorology has been consistent in it's stratospheric strength, when I met Dr. Sheets of the NHC at age 10, to me, it was like meeting a movie star. I had just forecasted hurricane Bob and 7 days out my track forecast when it was to be due east of Montauk point was off by 15 miles. Granted that was an easy forecast but at 10 years old with nothing more then a television I was proud of the outcome, granted there was a little luck involved, but I knew then what my calling was, I had already for a few years.
No problem John. I ;ve been part of the site for years. They tend to get a little crazy when snow is knocking at the door. :) They periodically jump on and off the site, adding their observations. I don't think they are intentionally ignoring your posts.
Hi again, I mentioned several times over the past several days that I just joined this site and haven't gotten one hello or reply so I am concerned that my posts are not showing up on the pages, so I am going to copy and paste my comment from a couple of hours ago from the "00 Z model observations for Fridays snow" discussion. If anyone can see this, please just say yeah we see it, or something, I would greatly appreciate it. (Earlier comment)--- Hi again, it's JPM, I wanted to say a few things, most of which you guy's probably know. 1) The GFS has a cold bias, among other issues, which causes it to amplify patterns and thus forecast solutions that do not come to fruition. However, the GFS being fairly consistent is a good sign for snow, but it's cold bias may cause it in the future to go to a mix or mix to rain solution for the Delaware valley, if this happens don't panic. 2) The 700 millibar temperatures are forecast to be very cold, even if they're warmer then forecast, ratio's will be well above the standard 10 to 1. 3) Computer model guidance is just that, guidance and a good forecaster never lives and dies by models but look's them over and then using that guidance and his own talent thinks of the most likely outcome and forecasts that. 4) The numerical and operational guidance WILL change, at least a little so if the guidance shows something bad for a run or two you need not worry. I have said a few times that I am new to this site and also wanted to reiterate that I am quite certain that you guys know most or all of what I am writing but if even one person doesn't and learns something then it is well worth writing this. P.S. In central Montgomery county we were forecast to get a dusting to an inch and with the clipper performing much weaker then forecast, in terms of paltry radar echoes in SE PA and not developing as strong as forecast, in central Montgomery county we got 1.4 inches at my house which will cause nighttime lows to be colder then forecast which will make daytime highs lower and as it is we have a forecast low of 10 F on Friday morning. I can't wait to go over the 00Z models.