The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
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Friday Snow & Ice (It could be significant)

For the first time in two winters the pattern positioning of the H's and L's look good for areas from DC to Boston. I like the trends and overall pattern on the GFS right now I think it's been doing a better job than the Euro but since it's still 5 days away we'll see how the other models come into play the next few days. 

 

Very cold air sits out in front of the storm and after it so unlike most of the storms this winter this one has a higher than normal shot of all snow come Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

 

Screen Shot 2013-01-20 at 10.27.55 PM

 

CLICK HERE FOR MLK SNOW

 

The EURO also has a decent snow for DC too NYC with 4-8" possible on the run early this morning. It's worth watching this week for sure.

 

The next update in a few hours as new information comes in from the

U.S. based models.

 

 

 

Blog started by rob guarino , on 120 days ago
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tim riggins
LOL JOE AND MB you guys are the biggest model huggers ever just wow.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
I'm glad the 6z showed south that just most likely means the north solution is going away and that the cold will keep this south and not allow a warmup for any rain.
120 days ago
 
scoopy
Yea Marcus ...that L is popping off the coast of Jersey now...1 or 2 would be nice and even Thurs it looks like another light event before the main course....
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
6z gfs shows a nice snowfall today.

Rap/gfs both show 1-2" MAX possible today as the low developes off the jersey shore later today.
120 days ago
 
Joe lasala
Marcus I would be more than glad to bite my tongue I want this do bad
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
You and mb gonna be biting your tongues at noon today when the 12z gfs comes back with a snowfall.

Yesterday. 6z was north with rain now way south and your gonna tell me that this is the final outcome that til be south?

The 6z gfs was more weak because of the 500mb most likely. At the 00z the energy dug deeper, the 6z not so much, which didnt make sense because the 6z 500 vort was actually a bit stronger...
It looked like a mere timing issue of 1-3 hours. I expect the 12z to bring it back to a snowfall for us.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
You guys saw the 6z dgex by any chance? 4-8". It looked like the 12z euro. Nam has the LP's for Friday lined up with the 00z gfs. Don't worry about the 6z gfs 4 days from a storm, it happens everytime lol. When I see the euro and gfs agree on something 5 days out, it's usually a good bet on close to that outcome
120 days ago
 
Joe lasala
This storm will be a weak wave of LP that just floats off the coast
120 days ago
 
Mikey B
Old saying..."suppression=depression" you all wanted "arctic air" well, it's here, and it's gonna squash our storm:(
120 days ago
 
Joe lasala
Marcus I hope u didn't jinx this by getting too excited to early
120 days ago
 
Mikey B
6z way south....buckle up folks:/
120 days ago
 
Joe lasala
6z GFS misses to the south unbelievable
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Euro 00z ensembles support the operational with a nice snowfall. Low pressure off jersey coast in the same spot as the operational.

00z gfs and 00z euro agree.
Both of their ensembles support the operational runs.

Snowfall looks very likely at this time.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
NAM looks like the GFS at 84hrs for the Friday storm. Low placements look to be the same across the board between the nam/euro/gfs. We should see the same outcome. Nam also has a coating to inch of snow before the Friday event.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Just looking at the ensembles.. 18z gfs the start of south movement had 2-3 members backing it up. Well the 00z had 6-8 members backing it up.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
If this misses us.......I just wouldn't know what to say, I think it would top the list of worst winter ever for me lol.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
High temps leading up to the storm 23/28/26. That's arctic air that's perfect temps leading up to the storm. Snow will stick to everything instantly no melting would take place at all.
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Gfs/euro/ukie on board for a pretty moderate snowfall Friday. At least we don't have too crazy of variations like usual and for once in 2 years N arctic air mass, finally!
120 days ago
 
tim riggins
Euro is a hit for philly. I am hearing a 4-6 event. well south of the earlier run. models have shifted
120 days ago
 
Marcus wild
00z euro hits the40/70. Looks like snow for everyone.
120 days ago
 


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