So I started to look over some snow totals this winter and some places have had near normal snowfall N & W of the major I-95 cities and even other places like the Upper Midwest and the Heartland.
I did predict a near normal winter for some and slightly above average for others so as of January 8th the snow map for the season so far is all over the place.
The November and December snows have been pretty weird with places like El Paso (Southwest) and even Allentown PA (Northeast) above average as far as snowfall.
The NAO and AO are gonna change and this will mean after a 15 day cold and somewhat snowy Southwest the weather pendulum will swing East and Midwest once again.
So the real snow killer so far this month in the east has been the ridge of HIGH pressure off the Mid and Southeast Atlantic coast.
This ridge (high pressure) has kept the storm track inland and as we are seeing a warmer east coast from Boston to Charlotte.
So the EURO model is hinting at a significant snow event from DC to Boston during that change in the not only the weather pattern but the NAO and AO signals. Could it be right ?
Well we saw this with Sandy about 10 days out so even though the Euro has not be on it's "A" game this winter it may be onto something.
Ok so I like what I see and for the first time this winter I see the connection to the cold air the dig in the east coast trough and how this may all connect near January 20-22.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT....
If we are going to get a shot at a January nor'easter in the core of winter (climo shows Jan 17-24 coldest time of year) it will come in this slot this winter. The dip in the Arctic Jet and possible phasing (coming together of the Southern-Northern Jet) has this time slot written all over it.
This is by no means a "guarantee" it's just a period that has a "BIG" potential for a storm to form...most likely the best of January. Of course this will evolve this far out but I do see the signals of the NAO AO and slide of the east coast based NAO for a short period. Timing will be the key here so as usual check back and you know the drill the closer we get the better the model guidance and accuracy of our forecasts.
Ummm all I will say is this ... in my life time I have never ever seen such warmth extending from the Gulf of Mexico all the way to the northern reaches of Canada you are talking 20 to even 30 degrees above normal Wow!!
All time record highs today in Florida 88 degrees on January 9th???
This weather pattern is really weird because there is no pattern. The computer models are all over the place. I feel sorry for you Mets trying to figure all of this out. I will keep reading the blogs Until hell freezes over. Keep the faith!
I agree...people do not realize we had Sandy...two snow storms in November (one in NJ other N& W PA) Christmas snow and a snow a few days after that. Everyone wants the BIG ONE...I feel it will happen this winter...I really do