The 4th & 5th threat I discussed a few days ago is no longer going to happen and here is why:
Here is the 30hr forecast from the NAM and it shows a trough split with one part of the trough moving through the Midwest and into the Northeast. The other merges with our disturbance over the SW CONUS.
Before there was a brief window that could have led to the SW CONUS system pushing east and phasing with the northern stream trough, Euro hinted at it and UKMET had it but shortly after my blog they abandoned this solution. Euro ensembles did not budge which should have been a warning sign it was another flip flop on the operational.
But now the energy is going to hang back for a few more days before the next northern stream system dives down:
The NAM is the most interesting out of all the models so far in the 12z suite, but the global models have a better handle on this and will act more as a kicker and kick the southern stream system eastward more and less developed. However, the Canadian does give a light snow event to portions of the Middle Atlantic:
The Euro does not show much but more aggressive than last run and further north with the very light precip!
Alicia, yeah that post seems reasonable. However, future warming will have a tough time mixing down into the lower levels of the Stratosphere based off the recent EP flux diagrams. However, several other factors point to the reversal into a cold pattern towards the later part of January.
Marcus, sorry about the other day where I kinda called you out. I was just getting pissed about the weather lol. Anyway, I was looking at the GFS model and it was showing a big nor easter at the very end of the model run. Something to watch.
I think this has big potential albeit low probability. Transition periods are always the most dangerous for big storms. That's why I don't get all of the bellyaching about the upcoming pattern. If it stays cold it pretty much stays dry around here. You need these periods to hit the big storms.