The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
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Ready...Set...SNOW

Good Evening All...

 

A good chunk of the Midwest and Ohio Valley picked up snow the last two days with blizzard conditions in 9 states.  This is building the snow cover we need next week as COLD Arctic HIGH pressure(s) start to invade the lower USA.

snow 12 20 2012

Snow Cover before the blizzard yesterday shows nice cover in the West and in Canada. We are setting up the next few weeks very nicely.

snow ice

Ahhhh lots of snow and ice up north as temps have dropped to -50 in Siberia and Alaska.

Screen Shot 2012-12-21 at 4.56.55 PM

So we have the signals....we have an active Southern Jet and we have a fresh snow cover to keep it cold...are we ready for storms? You bet we are starting next week. Ahhhh computer model guidance time.

Screen Shot 2012-12-21 at 5.34.51 PM

The NAM has the right trend but we'll see in a few hours on the new set of runs.

Screen Shot 2012-12-21 at 5.47.27 PM

The GFS would be snow for many and this would be a perfect come Christmas morning as NJ PA MD DE wake up to a winter wonderland.

Blog started by rob guarino , on 154 days ago
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Ken
LOL Dom.... 55 and sunny in Syacuse..... how fitting.... #5 #5 lol
154 days ago
 
Heat Island 718
00zNam 25th warmer drier and abit sheared. 00z Gfs 25th warmer, drier,but a bit further north. 00z Gfs 27th is warmer, closer to the coast, a bit drier. 00 Gfs 30th further east wasnt reflected in previous runs. 00z Gfs 2nd was on the 3rd closer to coast and abit drier and warmer. Everything is trending warmer and drier. My suspicion there still adjusting to the cold air penetration. We have a general track but model is flip flopping on ptype, and track deviation + - 60 miles east/west.
154 days ago
 
Marcus wild
00z nam drier... Warmer? Hmmm
154 days ago
 
Domenic Marchesani
CYNTHIA L CLARK Nam/GFS just in...Heavy rain and a high of 54 in Syracuse ...Every where else WHITE AND COLD... No SNOW FOR YOU
154 days ago
 
Donald golde
Rob do you have a snowfall estimate for Long Island? Reading between the lines seems to indicate that Long Island won't see anything from this one.
154 days ago
 
Heat Island 718
Looks like 1 clipper on the 25th, 1 B Miller on the 27th, another B miller on enso steriods with 967 mb, or is it an A Miller on the 3rd. The models are looking hyperactive. Like hurricane season in the winter, but with diffrent itcz. Just speculating the future looks promising :)
154 days ago
 
Andy Capone
I'm ready for winter! I'd love to see some crazy winter storms, I'm tired of seeing the stuff I should be seeing in the spring. I'm hoping the models hold up; if last night was any indication, things could be really exciting this winter.....anything would be better than last year!
154 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
Heavier Snow Squall being reported in King of Prussia at this time.
154 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Nam just got into range on this storm. The 12z today was pretty much it's first stab at it.
154 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
Scootch remember it is only Dec. 21st I do think things are changing as we speak though.
154 days ago
 
Scootch
The NAM looks about right....bringing rain to the southern half of Chester County. I wouldn't doubt this verifies verbatim with the way my luck has gone so far. lol.
154 days ago
 
CYNTHIA L CLARK
Hi Rob:

Would Syracuse wake up to a "Winter Wonderland " on Christmas morning also?
154 days ago
 
tim riggins
Marcus, do you think they will? or show something way different.
154 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Nam 00z will be out at 930 reb, gfs 1030-1130.

Everyone hold you breath and hope for the gfs to hold its ground from the 18z and the nam to come in line with the gfs!
154 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
Blue Blaster I am with ya hopefully 2 it will be.
154 days ago
 
Blue Blaster
10 pm. Or near that time.
154 days ago
 
Rebelg
What time is the 0z 7 pm or 10.00 pm,???
154 days ago
 
Blue Blaster
Kevin, I prefer two. I'm moving on the 10th and need two good fixes before leaving. :)
154 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
If you combine the AO and NAO that Rob is describing above we could be looking at a large snow event or two!
154 days ago
 
Ken
spectacular!
154 days ago
 


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