1) NAM is still warm but from 12z has showed a big shift with more precip headed north and colder air headed south
2) The GFS shows the moisture with the favorable track. Looks like the Canadian model!
NAM
OLD
NEW
The newer NAM is much colder! And also increases the precip. The GFS was not very impressed with the moisture on the 12z run but it sure came around in the 18z (below):
tim- nam starts at around 9:00ish and the gfs at around 10:30. I prefer weather.gov-http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE the euro comes out at around 1am (although im not sure, im not usually up that late) and can be found at wunderground
Lol. Yet none of the local mets mentioning snow on a pretty busy travel day for people visiting families. 3-5" of snow is a big deal considering it'll be phillys first snow fall...
I guess they'll wait until Sunday.
Anyway...
Almost all the models are in agreement now for snow in the deleware valley Christmas.
GFS did the same thing yesterday, 12z lost the storm, 18z beefed of up, and then 00z beefed it up even more! Wonder what tonight's gfs will bring.
Isn't this how the November nor'easter unfolded by the way?
Not only that but the storm on the 27th is looking very promising for dc. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_126_10m_wnd_precip.gif