18z Models = White Christmas

Euro Ensembles Agree on Christmas Storm CLICK HERE

 

The latest 18z models show 2 big things:

 

1) NAM is still warm but from 12z has showed a big shift with more precip headed north and colder air headed south

 

2) The GFS shows the moisture with the favorable track.  Looks like the Canadian model!

 

NAM

 

OLD

Screen shot 2012-12-21 at 5.07.26 PM

 

NEW

Screen shot 2012-12-21 at 5.07.10 PM

 

The newer NAM is much colder! And also increases the precip.  The GFS was not very impressed with the moisture on the 12z run but it sure came around in the 18z (below):

 

GFS

Screen shot 2012-12-21 at 5.03.30 PM

Screen shot 2012-12-21 at 5.13.33 PM

Blog started by Mike DeFino , on 180 days ago
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mark e
tim- nam starts at around 9:00ish and the gfs at around 10:30. I prefer weather.gov-http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller?prevpage=index&MainPage=index&cat=MODEL+GUIDANCE&page=MODEL+GUIDANCE
the euro comes out at around 1am (although im not sure, im not usually up that late) and can be found at wunderground
180 days ago
 
tim riggins
How much longer till the 00z models come out? Also any place where I can see it right when it comes out
180 days ago
 
Blue Blaster
18z models - hmmmm. Well, if the 00z models hold serve, then I will start to believe.
180 days ago
 
George Moran
Let it Snow Let It Snow Let It SNOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
180 days ago
 
Kevin Reilly
I like our chances of snow Christmas Eve and Beyond
180 days ago
 
Domenic Marchesani
Umm ya...when would this start??? Hey if its gonna snow it better be 3" plus..make it worth me missing my family on christmas
180 days ago
 
Marcus wild
Lol. Yet none of the local mets mentioning snow on a pretty busy travel day for people visiting families. 3-5" of snow is a big deal considering it'll be phillys first snow fall...

I guess they'll wait until Sunday.

Anyway...

Almost all the models are in agreement now for snow in the deleware valley Christmas.

GFS did the same thing yesterday, 12z lost the storm, 18z beefed of up, and then 00z beefed it up even more! Wonder what tonight's gfs will bring.

Isn't this how the November nor'easter unfolded by the way?
180 days ago
 
Alicia Smith
I live in the DC area. Keeping my fingers crossed!
180 days ago
 
rob guarino
nice Mike !
180 days ago
 
mark e
Not only that but the storm on the 27th is looking very promising for dc.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/MagGemPakImages/gfs/18/gfs_atlantic_126_10m_wnd_precip.gif
180 days ago
 


 

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