GFS- 2-4" of snow DCA-TTN including much of Eastern PA into Southern New England (1-3")
GFS Ensembles- 1-3"
GGEM- 1-3" for Philly on north...jackpot of 2-4+" across Northern PA into Southern New England
EURO- Wintry mix to rain in Philly...2-4" of snow northern PA into Southern New England (North of NYC)
Euro Ensembles- Colder but similar to operational Euro
Philadelphia area is the jackpot on this run with 2-4" of snow possible Christmas morning!
At the beginning of the event we will see all snow. Conditionally stable layer above 750mb coinciding with nice strong vertical wind shear is showing us we might have some dynamics to work with also with this small event.
GGEM comes in further north and more developed than past few runs. I think the blocking in place would prevent this initial warm up ahead of the system and lead to a colder slightly weaker system, but will see how the ensembles respond in a few hours!
The european continues to be rather impressive with this system with much more development and warm air advection. This displaces the heavier snows well to the north of Philly. However, enough cold air hangs around for a wintry mix to start. The ensembles were consistent on a weaker storm and colder solution, but will see what they do later tonight!
The euro is still king, but the shift eastward is a good thing. First big storm of the season is a lakes cutter and now it becomes a part of the block. Just watch - the euro will put the region in a sweet spot by Saturday night or Sunday.
Tim.... Nobody...and no model...will know what the 27th will bring until this storm that is raining on us now sets up the pattern. Wait till Sat or Sun before saying what may/may not happen post Christmas. In the meanwhile, wrap another gift and grab another Winter Warmer and wait for it...lol
Because its Christmas snow Tim. You really think they wanna get a Christmas snow forecast wrong? This storm just popped up yesterday and has been looking better and better ever since. Wait until Sunday night, if this is still there, local news will be on it.
They're gonna wait and see where this one goes. They should really start hinting at it though.. Because what the gfs just showed can cause travel headaches....