SCOREBOARD

GFS- 2-4" of snow DCA-TTN  including much of Eastern PA into Southern New England (1-3")

GFS Ensembles- 1-3"

GGEM- 1-3" for Philly on north...jackpot of 2-4+" across Northern PA into Southern New England

EURO- Wintry mix to rain in Philly...2-4" of snow northern PA into Southern New England (North of NYC)

Euro Ensembles- Colder but similar to operational Euro

GFS

Philadelphia area is the jackpot on this run with 2-4" of snow possible Christmas morning!

 At the beginning of the event we will see all snow.  Conditionally stable layer above 750mb coinciding with nice strong vertical wind shear is showing us we might have some dynamics to work with also with this small event.

GFS ENSEMBLES:

GGEM (Canadian)

GGEM comes in further north and more developed than past few runs.  I think the blocking in place would prevent this initial warm up ahead of the system and lead to a colder slightly weaker system, but will see how the ensembles respond in a few hours!

EUROPEAN

The european continues to be rather impressive with this system with much more development and warm air advection.  This displaces the heavier snows well to the north of Philly.  However, enough cold air hangs around for a wintry mix to start.  The ensembles were consistent on a weaker storm and colder solution, but will see what they do later tonight!

BLOG IN MOTION:  UKMET,  EURO, ENSEMBLES