I wouldn't call this storm a "clipper". It's a bit different.. A lot more moisture associated with it from the south then just a dry Alberta system. It pretty much attempts to form a nor'easter just too late off sure.
The 500mb looks good for a Christmas snow. The cyclone in Canada splits into 2 allowing our Christmas storm to amp up and pick up a nice chunk of southern moisture. And pop right near us. Temps across the board look good for a white Christmas in the deleware valley. Looking forward to the high res models getting in range on this.
I bet the Christmas storm is all but gone tonight 00z just to ruin my ezcitemt lol.
To all, Don't model hug, either way (Rob's been saying this back to his Fox 29 days)
I wouldn't trust the models on the 27/28 storm until we see if and where the block sets up and how the storm develops (Miller A or B). Given that we are in the midst of a pattern change the forecast is even more difficult. We still need to see where we stand after Friday's rain and then after the potential Christmas clipper. At this point the good news is the storms are there and it’s on all the models. Also as Steve D points out the cold is here andit is stronger than modeled. Hopefully that holds for the next ten days.
Still haven't had a full day of winter yet. By the way if it doesn't snow in the next 30 hours it won't matter because the non leap year counting Mayans and Darren Daulton said its over tomorrow for all of us including you doomsday prepers.
I was on the breaking point of giving up rob ill admit it. November "winter" gave me a false sense of winter around here. And since then it's been warm and models were showing warm. Until about 2 days ago it appears now were finally stepping into a winter and cold pattern.
I'm more interested in this little Christmas possibility and not worrying about the other storm until Monday 00z runs.
---The pattern will change this year bacnk on it ---models are coming around to snow tracks not just the lake storms ---this will not be like last winter,,.,,not even close ---oh yeah it's December 20 and some are already giving up...that's just makes me laugh.
Actually rich almost all the models are agreeing on the cold air finally coming. It's not in the 15-20 day range anymore it's now in the 5-7 day range. Today's storm is the start of the cold pattern. How long it sticks around is anybody's guess.
This feels like the chase is on once again this year. Warm/wet, dry/cool. I really want to be wrong!!!!!!!! I too have ZERO formal training but I follow the weather closely. Seems like all the good stuff comes with the "next storm." Problem being the next storm the change will come with the following storm and so it goes and so it goes! SOMEONE PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Rich, by January 1, we will be much colder with a nice fresh snow cover. You can bet on that. This pattern change has taken alot longer then everyone originally thought but it will be finished by the new year.
Too bad the precip in the radar isn't snow today. Only 40 degrees here in Philly suburbs with cold wind. Looks interesting for next week and is still many days away and alot can happen. Great blogs, Rob. Think snow!!!