Quick Model Scorecard (Dec 25 & Dec 28 Storm)

The Winter Buzz ! (Factors, Winter 101)
Go to group page

Quick Model Scorecard (Dec 25 & Dec 28 Storm)

Canadian Model just in...

Dec 24-25

Light Snow PHL, Allentown, Central & North Jersey, Mix Millville, Wilm.

Dec 27-28

Moderate Snow event most of SE PA, SNJ, NJ, DE, NY

=============================

GFS Model just in...

Dec 24-25

Light Snow Showers Most areas north of Dover DE and South of NYC

Dec 27-28

Moderate-Heavy Rain/Mix to Snow DC to NYC

==============================

UKMET Model....

Dec 24-25

Light Snow Wilmington-Cherry Hill-Philly North to Lehigh Valley/C. NJ

Dec 27-28

Not in range yet

==============================

EURO model just in...

Dec 24-25

Light Rain for most areas...storm stays inland

Dec 27-28

Heavy Rain for most areas ending as some snow possible

==============================

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...

A good number of the models are starting to see the Block off the -NAO. I do think we need another day to see how the Euro plays out the "block or no block".

Since we are still 5 days away from the Christmas storm and 7-8 days from the post Christmas storm we have more than enough time to follow this pattern as we round out 2012.

Blog started by rob guarino , on 155 days ago

You need to be a member of this group before you can participate in this discussion

SgtSnow

It didn't, no worries. I just want snow on Christmas. I don't care what it's called as long as it delivers.

155 days ago

Marcus wild

Just put it in quotes and ill accept it sgtsnow!

Just a lot of people calling it a clipper and I've been scratching my head as of why.

Wasn't trying to be condescending !

Sorry if it came off like that.

155 days ago

Kyle Clayton

My mouth is watering looking at the 18z GFS. Looks like 2 Miller A's coming down the pipe after Christmas. I know its a long ways off, and the first run that has shown that, but a man can dream :)

155 days ago

SgtSnow

You are correct Marcus. I shouldn't have referenced it as a clipper. My bad.

155 days ago

Marcus wild

I wouldn't call this storm a "clipper". It's a bit different.. A lot more moisture associated with it from the south then just a dry Alberta system. It pretty much attempts to form a nor'easter just too late off sure.

The 500mb looks good for a Christmas snow. The cyclone in Canada splits into 2 allowing our Christmas storm to amp up and pick up a nice chunk of southern moisture. And pop right near us. Temps across the board look good for a white Christmas in the deleware valley. Looking forward to the high res models getting in range on this.

I bet the Christmas storm is all but gone tonight 00z just to ruin my ezcitemt lol.

155 days ago

SgtSnow

To all,
Don't model hug, either way (Rob's been saying this back to his Fox 29 days)

I wouldn't trust the models on the 27/28 storm until we see if and where the block sets up and how the storm develops (Miller A or B). Given that we are in the midst of a pattern change the forecast is even more difficult. We still need to see where we stand after Friday's rain and then after the potential Christmas clipper. At this point the good news is the storms are there and it’s on all the models. Also as Steve D points out the cold is here andit is stronger than modeled. Hopefully that holds for the next ten days.

155 days ago

Marcus wild

Btw MB, that 18z run for the 27-28 storm was a perfect run to be at right now, this far out.

Storm is turning into a miller a storm. 100 miles north west and Philly gets a foot of snow.

The trend has been our friend, and my friends I think Philly sees 10 inches of snow before New Years.

155 days ago

Steve

I fly in to NYC on the 28th @ 2pm, will there be any snow still around then? I fly in from Australia, so i'll be going from one extreme to the next! Getting excited!

155 days ago

Marcus wild

18z gfs shows 1-4" of snow for Christmas.

155 days ago

Mikey B

18z gfs out to sea....

155 days ago

SgtSnow

Of course if Hair appears and tells me I need Pert and need to prep my concrete drift fences......well then, game on.

155 days ago

SgtSnow

Still haven't had a full day of winter yet. By the way if it doesn't snow in the next 30 hours it won't matter because the non leap year counting Mayans and Darren Daulton said its over tomorrow for all of us including you doomsday prepers.

155 days ago

Marcus wild

I was on the breaking point of giving up rob ill admit it. November "winter" gave me a false sense of winter around here. And since then it's been warm and models were showing warm. Until about 2 days ago it appears now were finally stepping into a winter and cold pattern.

I'm more interested in this little Christmas possibility and not worrying about the other storm until Monday 00z runs.

155 days ago

rob guarino

A few things to remember all

---The pattern will change this year bacnk on it
---models are coming around to snow tracks not just the lake storms
---this will not be like last winter,,.,,not even close
---oh yeah it's December 20 and some are already giving up...that's just makes me laugh.

155 days ago

Marcus wild

Actually rich almost all the models are agreeing on the cold air finally coming. It's not in the 15-20 day range anymore it's now in the 5-7 day range. Today's storm is the start of the cold pattern. How long it sticks around is anybody's guess.

155 days ago

weatherman71

I believe we've been waiting on a pattern change for about 18 months now, with last month being the only below normal month in that time period.

155 days ago

Riff

This feels like the chase is on once again this year. Warm/wet, dry/cool. I really want to be wrong!!!!!!!! I too have ZERO formal training but I follow the weather closely. Seems like all the good stuff comes with the "next storm." Problem being the next storm the change will come with the following storm and so it goes and so it goes! SOMEONE PLEASE PROVE ME WRONG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

155 days ago

CYNTHIA L CLARK

Rob:

Do you know what Syracuse would get as far as precipitation goes for the dates you memtioned?

155 days ago

SnowSlaughter

Rich, by January 1, we will be much colder with a nice fresh snow cover. You can bet on that. This pattern change has taken alot longer then everyone originally thought but it will be finished by the new year.

155 days ago

Carole

Too bad the precip in the radar isn't snow today. Only 40 degrees here in Philly suburbs with cold wind. Looks interesting for next week and is still many days away and alot can happen. Great blogs, Rob. Think snow!!!

Quick Model Scorecard (Dec 25 & Dec 28 Storm)

Other Groups

.

Users Login