Another day of model runs and one thing is becoming clear. This Christmas event should produce a white Christmas for some in the Northern Middle Atlantic. Still have a ton of questions on the intensity of this event we could see anything from a swath of snow that produces a trace or a bigger event that brings upwards of 3-5" of snow. So where do the models stand..
The Euro took it to a whole new level in the overnight run and shows a big event for Christmas so big that it warms us up enough for rain! As we said before this will not happen as the block in place will prevent this. The European model has been having trouble with underestimating this block with the storm after Christmas also as the ensembles show a much weaker and colder Christmas event with a snowier solution on the post Christmas storm.
The light green color would be the heaviest snow with 2-4"
The Canadian model was the first one to really highlight this event and it is staying fairly consistent.
Does this system get sheared out or become a bigger system as the models above show?
They key is the set up to our north and the vortex or vortices. The GFS shows a strong vortex that would shear out any system that tries to develop. The CMC splits the vortex into two and allows room for development. The Euro is a little out there with this split and allows a lot of development which is not supported by its own ensemble members. The stratosphere can shed some light on this for us and with the most intense warming taking place to the west of the vortex it makes sense for the split to occur. So as a result this would result in a slight edge for the Canadian and UKMET over the GFS right now.
The UKMET as mentioned above is below:
- Threat for a bigger event on Christmas is increasing
-Chance for a White Christmas across portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic are also increasing!
As much as I want a White christmas...I dont...because i will be called out to plow... Especially if its over 3 inches...I mean hell ill make money but i dont wanna miss the look on my kids faces. Really when was the last time it actually snow on christmas morning in the Philly area?