I'm sure most of you if not all of you have heard something about the Storm after Christmas, and I can assure you it needs to be watched closely. Models had this Low tracking well west of the East Coast (over the Chicage Area) the past couple of days meaning another round of Rain and a brief warm up. Sounds awfully familiar...BUT let's see what the Models have on the plate after last night's runs... SORRY FOR LINKS AS I CANNOT UPLOAD IMAGES ONTO A BLOG FOR SOME REASON.
This Shows the Low forecast to track WELL West of the East Coast into the Chicago area. This of course is the Warm/Rainy solution we have been accustomed to. Seeing this we all know this would be the case based off the past couple weeks. Cold Air would still come right behind it and funnel into the East Coast, but after the precip. So Rain, maybe frozen precip on the onset, but a warm solution in the end followed by Cold.
A 400 mile shift East has occured. The Low, instead of going into the Chicago area is now tracking into Ohio. BIG difference and a good sign if you want this bad boy to bring some snow. One of the reasons for this is in the 1st map I posted, you can see the lack of High pressure or a weaker HIGH pressure in Southern Canada allowing the Storm to come North, now if you look at the scond image the HIGH is much stronger and thus forcing the storm south and more East instead of a GLC (Great Lakes CUtter). Also the ridge along the West Coast in much sharper allowing a deeper trough o develop on the East Coast and allowing our storm to psuh further East. The trough is more negatively tilted with a sharper ridge off the East Coast almost pulling it East at the same time. Block is much stronger.
This still woudn't be Snow, BUT I will get to that explanation in a minute on why that is not a worry at this time. The Primary Low is in Ohio weakening, see that LOW to the East of there? That is a new developing LOW depicted. The energy from that Low is giving its energy to the NEW Low tracking into the VA area. Even further East, but still Rain and still leaving us in the Warm sector.
DO NOT WORRY ABOUT WHERE THE LOW IS ON THIS RUN, IT IS TRENDING EAST AND GIVEN IT IS STILL 7 DAYS OUT MORE SHIFTING WILL OCCUR. Will the shift be West again? Maybe, but not likely the final solution. Will it trend further East and potentially offshore? That is the trend to watch for in the coming days.
NOW I show you the latest 0z GFS run for the 27th as the Low begins moves North...
Notice the GFS has also come ~400 miles East with the track. Another good sign! The Low was orignally depcited to track into the Chicago area as well, but has shifted South and East as that of the EURO. It now has it coming up the spine of the Appalachian Mountains moving NNE. You can see the area of HIGH pressure over Southern Canada and seeping south into the US forcing the storm, you guessed it, east. The trough here is very deep as it digs into southern Texas which also suggests a further east movement of the Low. REX BLOCK over SE Canada???
We would still be in the warm sector and mosty rain here on the East Coast, but again the trend is our friend. Exact track, intensity, rain/snow line is not to be worried about this far out. The idea the models have of this coming further east makes sense and is a very good sign for snow lovers here on the East Coast.
Here is the GFS on the 28th (next day) a MONSTER 964MB Low over NY State...
This would be Snow for all of NJ, PA and NYC AFTER the LOW passes to our North, as the VERY STRONG LOW wraps in the Cold air at this point in time, with the exception of Northern New England you can see. Anywhere West of the THICK BLUE LINE IS SNOW ON THIS IMAGE.
The models are beginning to pick up the pattern, and are adjusting to the set up that lies ahead. It is not the ideal track for an all out Snowstorm here on these images, but it is trending, and as I always like to say, "You never want a perfect Snowstorm track projected more than 4 days out on the Models, it will only shift leaving us with anger and disappointment." The trend is our friend in this case. As long as we have the -NAO to help out as well, we are not in bad shape.
This is my take on this system, I'm sure many of you will have many different solutions and ideas of your own. Interested to hear them!
Either way we are looking at another COLD BLAST after this post Christmas Storm...
More shifting, more Model Madness will occur in the next 5-7 days, but the important thing is the Models are picking up on this upcoming WINTER pattern, and it is only a mater of time before we get ours.
Latest GFS shifts east forms a secondary low off of the delmarva coast then slows it down while trying to bomb it out southeast of long island taking a heavy snow track moving NE . The 540 line line is on the i95 corridor or just north of it durring the day but as the storm intensifies and nightfall begins all recit will turn to snow. Heavy accumulilations expected if this verifies or if the storm goes a tad east. Again i see rainsnow line cutting through NYC heading southeast through the NJTP through philly , and Balt durring the day at night all precipt changes over to frozen.
Tim, ensembles are East, blocking will prevent storm ftom cutting that far west, and it is 7-8 days away. I said it would do this, they are not handling the set up properly they are still adjusting. Give it time. PNA looks to go positive in the near future as well. Don't throw in your towel.
Not looking like this is going to pan out. We have a -PNA and the models are now going far back west. Highly unlikely the final will be east and provide a winter storm. Let it Rain, Let it Rain, Let it Rain.