The latest model runs from early this morning have shown a big shift eastward and will continue to trend eastward over the next few days, The GFS had the biggest shift in the sfc reflection of the system from the 12z run on Tues to the 00z run on Weds.
As I mentioned yesterday the arctic shows an upper level low diving down from Greenland displacing our block with the upper level low being pushed east off Newfoundland. This allows the heights to rise but it is still suspicious if you look at the sfc. A giant high in Central Canada would not allow an inland solution even with the older GFS weakening the block quicker. Based off this image alone we would expect a big time eastward adjustment and that happened...
Valid for the same time it has shifted the low to a latitude that is south of the 12z Tues run and that is east. Instead of the low being over Arkansas it is over the GA/AL border. This is a big time adjustment! Notice the blocking signature, that upper level low is not as aggressive and does not weaken our block as quickly.
The European shows similar results at an earlier time frame but still shows an inland solution. However, the shift east is evident:
Earlier run of the Euro had a very questionable set up over Greenland with the two strong vortices so close together. This was corrected in the latest run:
Much stronger block in this timeframe and notice the lack of height rises across the Northern Plains ahead of the trough. This is a big step in the right direction for a significant winter storm to impact the Eastern US.
GGEM ENSEMBLES SHOW WINTER STORM:
* Models are shifting eastward
* Winter storm threat is increasing for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast
Agreed John, somebody will get buried with this, however it's kind of worrisome that every major outlet both online and on TV is calling for rain, and not even cold rain. Mostly upper 40's to 50deg for highs with this. Not even close. I think it's important for all us emotionally to understand with all this excitement there is still avery good chance this is a rain storm and we can't lose sight of reality. Let's hope the trend continues east. At least the forecast temps are lower than they were yesterday so it's a good trend. Just want to be realistic that this storm is still more likely to be rain:(
No doubt, someone will get burried by this storm. I'm leaning toward this being a big winter storm threat for Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Still quite a few days away. I know other pros out there are still feeling it could track west of the big cities, which is fair. So, we have to wait and see. Best thing to do for folks that follow this storm is watch the ensembles.
Anyway, standing by for today's 12z runs. Just a side note, the biggest challenge will be the handling of the block over Canada. I should say Rex Block over Canada (DT mentioned this one). Certainly will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Hello mike you called it and its startingbhappen. At first i as skeptical but when you explained it and visualized it a couple of days ago i knew you were on to somthing. Now we need thins storm to start spinning up like we know it could then we have our nor easter. It looks intresting for the end of the year!
step in right direction, however what I see happening is the s/w in the southwest doesn't close off and dig like previously modeled which allows it to meander further east before really getting cranked up. Also the Christmas event which hasn't been modeled drives down the block further south out of Canada and also doesn't phase with the s/w in the southwest like it was on previous runs. I would think the stronger we can get that Xmas event to be the better it would be for our snow chances with the main event. It's a massive change in the matter of one day which is certain to change even more given we are still 7 days out! I am getting intrigued now! Nice stuff Mike.