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4pm Update on Future Storms
Ahhhh so we all wait for the real start of winter and now wonder when will it really start. I think it starts with the passage of the cold front and storm from Chicago to New York. Let's start with the big signals first.
So we see a better than normal index but not a blockbuster one the next two weeks. Now time for the NAM model update.
The NAM has been trending a little wetter and slightly colder the last three runs since it got in range of this system.
Blog started by rob guarino , on 153 days ago
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Back end snows rarely happen in the Philly area.....when the models show it , it never happens.
Marcus
Why do you think none of the forecasters are showing this happening, they say all rain. if something like this were to happen, I feel they would have mentioned about it by now. There saying just rain for philly.
Why do you think none of the forecasters are showing this happening, they say all rain. if something like this were to happen, I feel they would have mentioned about it by now. There saying just rain for philly.
Seems like most models are now saying back end snow, but many of the local stations and the weather channel don't even mention back end snow, they say all rain. They just cold afterwards.
00z nam was interesting. Low forms up more south west. South east could make this interesting...
Agree weatherman. Back end snows are very unpredictable and usually don't occur. Time to just enjoy the cold air rush that will follow and it will at least feel like winter since it wont look like it.
The surface is cold too Philly. It's just a case of does the precip leave before the cold. Be nice just to see some flakes falling.
What about surface temps on Friday morning? It seems the surface temps would be too warm for snow in the Philly area. It looks like the cold air will be racing in aloft, but still too warm at the surface. Maybe I'm missing something?
Looks good! The MJO,NAO, and AO are looking good for the start of january.
Keeping fingers crossed!
Keeping fingers crossed!
18z nam now agrees with the 12z gfs showing .25-.5 QPF as the cold air moves in. Both now showing almost the same exact thing.
Hey Rob...
Nam still looking a little colder maybe some snow showers on friday and something bigger next week....i like to see some white and not all wet in jersey right near 295 ,,the new norm rain /snow line sits .....on 295 lol
Nam still looking a little colder maybe some snow showers on friday and something bigger next week....i like to see some white and not all wet in jersey right near 295 ,,the new norm rain /snow line sits .....on 295 lol
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