The talk continues to increase about the December 27th event and although models show another inland solution the models are missing on key component and it is the impressive blocking pattern setting up that will prevent this solution. In the earlier runs of the 00z Euro this morning a rex blocking signature was showing up which models tend to weaken too quickly and can be seen here:
Rex block is a blocking signature as seen above that does not budge that quickly. The models showed this weaken pretty quickly which is a warning sign. Despite that a quick glance at the Euro at 12z:
No rex block but the blocking is still one that has the look of a favorable east coast snow storm. But the model still drives a system inland:
The blocking pattern in place would suggest a completely different solution like the ensembles show:
No rex block but the blocking is going to get the job done here by preventing the system from getting way to amped up to far to the west. The blocking suggest that the low pressure system would have to move more east resulting in a favorable track as seen below. Now the ensembles did come north a little bit but the overall conistency has been great for a snow storm in the Northern Middle Atlantic/Northeast and possible ice threat farther south.
The main difference from the Operational Euro and the Euro ensembles (besides physics) is the kicker s/w. The Euro ensembles do not buy into the pattern slowing down allowing for this deep amplification. Given the current pattern we are in it makes sense for the active nature of the pattern to continue and this would allow the incoming trough in the Western US to keep things progressive and moving east.
With these two things mentioned the models should trend further south and east at the sfc with the low pressure system. They are weakening the block way too quickly and are not following the overall pattern. Models are having trouble with the active pattern, the block (whether it be a rex block or not), potential widespread snow cover that will alter temperatures in future runs. So a LOT of confusion on models but the synoptics point to a snow storm for the Northeast and at least a winter storm for the Middle Atlantic.
I agree models do break down the rex block too quickly, there notorius for that also have a hard time handling cutoffs also. As for the rex blocks i think its positioned a lil west of where it should be thats why the inland track .
So can we say there is a good amount of confidence that a wintry storm will affect the area from say DC to NYC even though it's still far out. I heard about that REX blocking pattern which most models do not pick up. Hoping for a good snow here.