We still have another system to track before the 27th, but the set up on the European model on the day 7-10 map above is very very good for a Snow Storm for the Middle Atlantic. The block setting up with the upper level low pushing towards the prime 50/50 position and the west based -NAO. Split flow out west sends a southern stream system that cannot push inland because of the block and this sets us up for what the ensembles show!
I think the southeast ridge is strengthened by the on-going - PNA and where the ridge axis sets up . This is why the the cold air is bottled up on canada. When it decides to come down to the states it will first supress storms south then as it modifies will get our snowstorm. The key is the pacific
Yep, the GFS has been consistent with these lakes cutters and it has proven to be correct to this point. That SE ridge will keep haunting us until we can correct things out in the Pacific. The only area that is being helped by the east based -NAO is northern New England.
I will believe it when I see change out west, which doesn't appear to be happening. these 7-10 days upper air maps change on a daily basis on both the GFS and Euro. We are currently stuck in a PAC flow right now and I won't bite until I see change out west.
This looks pretty good. Still a long ways out but i like how this is setting up. Nice west based nao and good storm track. Also the models seem to be in agreement. Latest model run had over about 15in of snow for parts of NJ and a little less than that in philly and dc. Looks like if this pans out, some good snow totals for the I-95 corridor
Still a long ways out but each model run is looking better and better
I had such high hopes coming in to this winter, so many forecasters saying huge snow for the mid-atlantic. I know it is so hard to forecast weather, so I cannot be mad at them for giving us an estimate. I just hope we aren't going to be on the rain part of these storms throughout the season cause it looks like many storms could be setting up like this. Thanks Rob.