I am going to start off with something from my last blog that I think is important and will help determine which way we see the models go from here on out.
Why the amplified solution?
The reason I am not liking a lot of these runs is the lack of ridging out west. My reasoning can be seen on current IR imagery and the signs of a MJO phase 1.
Phase 1 MJO is highlighted in certain areas of enhanced convection. The bonus part here which is kinda inhibiting a stronger signal (besides convection south of Sri Lanka) is the convection SW of HI which extends to the favorable phase 1 Mexico. The convection near the dateline here is going to pump up the heights along the western US. This would favor a setup closer to the GFS which could make things interesting if the model places the sfc features correctly.
Phase 1 MJO composite:
Notice the higher height anomalies over the Western US. This fits the overall tropical forcing perfectly.
After describing the upper level pattern above on the observations the GFS comes in with another completely different solution from 00z. It flattens the ridge in response to the active Pacific which shifts everything. The 50/50 low is weaker and more displaced and the system comes in at a higher latitude resulting in a warm inland system.
Could this be the models resisting the change in the pattern? Yeah it might be as they don't want to build a ridge on the West coast, but I think we will continue to see this model flip flop.
The older GFS from 00z:
The RPM goes out to 72hrs and is a very good short range model. It could have some big changes in this range but the overall upper level pattern is one that favors closer to my thinking than the GFS and CMC. The trough is still digging in the Plains with heights much lower along the Eastern US. This could be a sign of the models under developing the first system on the 17th. The RPM is the most aggressive but not by too much and as a result we see the changes!
Similar to the GFS aloft but develops a secondary a little too late for areas south of Southern New England. Last run it did show accumulating snow possible all the way down to PHL on the back end. Now it shifted north with that potential. This model has also been flip flopping with every run.
Similar to the CMC with late secondary development and some backend snow for New England. This model continues to flip flop also so now we are starting to see agreement on the inland solution with secondary transfer but there is still one problem. I will address it in the "conclusion"
GFS ENSEMBLES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE!
- Models have shifted from inland to coastal to out to sea to back inland all in the last few days. This chaos will not stop because of all the systems in the Pacific and the one we are expecting this Sunday!
- This Sundays system will be the biggest player of the event. The stronger this low can get the greater our chance for wintry precipitation in the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Models are not impressed but a few ensembles are and the RPM is leaning towards the more impressive side. The ensemble member with the black dot is strong with the Sunday system and look how it impacts the forecast! That is a big time snow storm for portions of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Others are strong and show a miss or earlier secondary development for a rain to snow situation.
- Whether rain or snow this system sets us up for a chance at a white Christmas!
Phillywhiteout I was going to say something about the hybrid la nina, but had a feeling you were trying to get a stir LOL. Winter will settle in first then it will make itself feel at home as we progress. I'm not even thinking about looking past this weekends system until it's gone. Then we will see everything unfold more clearly.
P.S. LETS'S BRING THIS SITE BACK TO WHAT IT USED TO BE !!
We all need to realize that December has never been a snowy month for us except in 09 and 10. We need to take a deep breathe and wait for our winter which is January and February. All these storms now are setting us up for a great January and February. Just be patient and wait
still too early to say that mary...the models will do their usual dance until they get a handle things. Even if this storm doesnt pan out we still have many to look forward to after it. This one will just aid the pattern change and we'll be digging out in no time!
Looks like this wednesday storm will be a flop. But dont worry. Temps are forecasted to get really cold by the second half of next week and the stormy pattern is setting up nicely. Once we get this cold air, its a go. Maybe a new years storm?
How are you going to say to start to look for a white New Years? It's not even Christmas yet and let alone that's 11 days away. Anything can happen at anytime. Don't start making up answers that are not set in stone yet. Like Marcus says, we'll see lol
The 19-20 Storm will change everything. Models do not get this they are in progressive mode. Of course if the gfs goes inland now it sees the next doing the same. The GFS just went from ots to inland in a day. Idk how anyone can say that will be the final solution & that will be how the rest of Winter will turn out. They simply do not know the pattern yet. They rarely behave this badly & that alone lets you know a change is in the works. Relax guys, the Cold is coming, although eventual suppression may be an issue, the cold will be there & at least one storm will use that cold air. With the active pattern our chances alone increase. We need to stop living on every run & let this sun/mon system do its thing and get out of here, and as a result the models will begin to grasp this upcoming storm track & cold air. 1 at a time!! No worry over here at all. Be patient, this is NOT LAST YEAR.