The GFS model has come in and does a 180 from last night showing an out to sea track! This is very wrong as the error we have been pointing out comes back in this run but this time impacts it in a negative way to make it go out to sea. Although the models do show the combination of the upper level energy and low working together to produce some snow in our area, but it is wrong. And we want it to be wrong because if the low goes out to sea we do not set up our block for our White Christmas chances!
Having two lows that strong near each other is very very unlikely/impossible. The northern most low being stronger displaces our block to the east allowing everything to shift east such as our storm.
EUROPEAN VS GFS:
Notice the difference in the 540 line on the GFS vs Euro. The EURO backs up the flow with the block being more west and it just leads to a completely different solution. The Euro does not have that error to the extent of the GFS and we see the result!
Euro is still having a difficult time with developing the low. In the GFS ensembles below you can see the importance of what we are watching for going ahead. Its tough to gauge how much cold air will be around when the models are messing up the biggest factor (the block) and having two lows next to each other messing up the advection patterns. But below you can see some of the stronger more developed lows have a lot more cold air with them and show a snow storm for portions of the Middle Atlantic. This is important because most ensembles steer away from the operational run and even on the euro (waiting on 12z) the ensembles have been colder!
EURO ENSEMBLES REMAIN COLDER AND CLOSER TO COAST
Despite the models changing we are standing our ground with a big storm around the 19th. We think models will come in stronger and colder as we approach the system. Whether rain or snow it will set us up for White Christmas potential!
BLOG IN MOTION UPDATE AROUND 4 WITH EURO ENSEMBLES
I don't think weather works that way. The weather will do whatever it wants to do, so it isn't safe for you to make a decision and say "it's just rain" when you really can't make a decision by yourself without models. Really, where would weather "forecasting" be without models that do the work for you?
Euro ensembles very close to a storm. I think it's a safe bet to call this one rain and wait until after the 19th storm for the snow. Only problem is the AO is gonna go way negative we may now have suppression as the issue..
Mike When you say setting us upp for a white Christmas i come to the conclusion there is a second storm behind the first. If all goes well with storm 1 where along the east coast do you see a white Christmas? I wont hold you to it just kinda want to peak at your tthinking