I kinda knew this might happen and well if you read the new discussion from the National Weather Service today it ends with "Very Interesting" for next week.
The pattern to a colder run is knocking on door and the race is does the cold get here "before""during" or "after" the phasing as the coast.
I'll be posting the big signals first as we look past Christmas and than we'll see where each model is going. I will say the EURO is starting to get on a trend and may be the leader to follow with this storm.
So after looking at the NAO and AO here is what I think. The NAO will help in a coastal storm next week esp. the December 19th storm. It's a mid range storm right now, not a blockbuster like 2009 but not just a wave with some light precip.
The colder air is right behind it and if we can either slow the storm down a day or speed up the cold...we have a nice snowstorm vs. a mix/rain to snow event.
The GFS is a mess on this run...plain and simple.
The Euro is also a bit off from the last few runs but has a little better handle than the GFS right now.
The Canadian offers a totally differernt look and this just adds to the MODEL MADNESS going on right now.
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
It's not getting any easier but I just have a feeling the colder air is trying to change things just a bit on the computer model thinking. Yesterday I said this was not going to be easy and well here we go with this snow/mix/rain potential next week.
I know people like to say winter doesn't begin until December 21st, but that is astronomical winter. Meteorological winter actually starts on Decmeber 1st and that is what I tend to go by. I mean, if it snows after March 1st the snow is gone in one day because of the sun angle. Our real winter is really from mid Decmeber until mid February. Any snow outside of that 2 month period is a bonus. I don't have the stats, but I'm guessing 90% of our snow falls in that timeframe.
I hope it does become a snow event but im putting my money in it being a rain event :(. To much warm air. But thr good news is that its only going to be colder as time goes on and winter hasn't event started :)
I understand that completely, im just saying that a few weeks ago we were saying cold was going to invade 2nd week december, well here we are and now we are saying another week or so... it just seems like that is what the models keep doing, showing cold 10-14 days out but once we get withing 5 days or so it al goes away...I specifically remember looking over everything and thinking damn after the 15th its gonna be light someone flips the cold switch, now not so much ...
You have to remember the NAO and AO only go out 14 days so to look beyond the 27th right now is not really worth since the NAO and AO go up and down this winter. The key is to catch those swings on the right spot and next week may or may not be that spot.
Starting to get concerned with the overall pattern change and cold air...NAO isnt getting near as negative as the models have been predicting and now are even shown to touch in positive territory, PNA has been negative and the cold keeps getting pushed back. back in november looked like cold would come 2nd week of november..then it was a lock cold air would come on the 15th now we are 2 days away from that and it doesnt look like cold doesnt get here till 21-22 and even then not that cold, artic air looks to be towards xmas or later... sure hope we dont keep pushing this cold air back further and further...soon it will be feb and we'll be saying pattern change for vday lol... i realize its only mid december and its not suppose to be frigid out yet or even have a snowstorm, but its the pattern..