We hope you like the flakes falling on the screen to get you in the mood for some snow this month. This next 10 days will be a delicate balance of The NAO...The Storm Track...and of course the COLD AIR HIGH PRESSURE.
If we 1 of the 3 we'll get nada...2 of the 3 gets you a storm but it could be weak or wet and 3 of 3 gets you looking for that shovel.
Half of you people need to relax. Sometimes you're right and sometimes you're wrong. Even weather men get the weather right or wrong. These storms are a couple days away and there's no way you can say what will happen that many days away. It's the sit and wait game with these models. I'm sick of seeing people one minute say looks like snow then saying it don't. Just sit and relax and have fun with it. You will know once it gets somewhat closer.
Hello everyone to my previous post it dosent mean i have given up. If my memory serves me right roughly a week before sandy hit the GFS did flash the correct model solution. When i saw it i almost jumpt out of my seat. The GFS did pick up the blocking NAO that pulsed just enough to send the storm in through Atlantic City NJ, it also picked up the merge between the Sandy and the low rounding the base of the trough comming up the coast and the rest we know what happened then. The GFS did flash a solution roughly 3 days ago where it did put a Nor Easter south of Long Island. Its just not looking good right now, but models tend to do this from time to time.
Alex I havent given up but concern is that similar to last year ,which i believe was also supposed to be cold and snowy, that early on the forecast was turning out the way is was projected and of course in spite of some mets sticking to their guns the cold and snow never came. I believe Dec was forecasted to be colder and snowier then normal ,but so far that hasn't happened and in fact the opposite has happened. Given that does it make sense to think that the rest of the forecast make be in trouble?
I also noticed a drop in the enthusiasm from some of the mets who don't seem to be posting as much or are as optimistic as a couple weeks ago.
I may be wrong but I believe that the end of Nov. early dec. was when the pattern was supposed to change and then mid Dec. but my local 7 to 10 forecast doesn't show much change at all. To me a delay of 20 plus days does not bode well.
rich, rob put up a chart that showed how this december and the december of 2009 were very similar with both decembers starting out snowless and mild and we rememberhow the 09/00 winter turned out. First big snow wasnt untill the 19th and it was all snow and cold after that so lets not give up on winter yet!!! seems the only issue we're having is getting enough cold air to come down from Canada. The rest of the pattern is cooperaing besides the temps....
So far the GFS is unimpressed at this time. The GOA low is stubborn to move out of the way and let the GOA high take control. This will allow for the PNA to go positive, and allow for for better teleconmection with a - NAO thats trying to make its presence felt. Ohh did I forget the - AO in the upper artic needs to be somwhat established to produce a good inventory of cold weather. Untill I see better teleconmection between the forces at work all i see is storms either going to the Lakes thats when they force to early around the southern plains, they get sheard out, or form out to sea. Untill the teleconnective features are better established we will have much of the same nothing. To me the key is upstream the GOA low can you please move out the way, and the NAO please be the linebacker that we know you can be. Lol
Rob the snow lovers are starving right now especially after last winter.Here we are again and almost half of Dec. gone with temps averaging well above normal and only promises of cold and snow but none in sight that doesn't require several different things coming together which rarely happens in the Philly area.
The biggest disappointment has been the lack of any cold air to speak of and the fact that December is starting out this way.
This winter, in spite of different parameters from last year, is beginning to remind of last year when the cold that was thought to come never came.It seems everything gets pushed back another ten days and models that look good never materialize.
In Philly I think these will probably be the only snow flakes we see flying before Xmas since we just can't seem to find any cold air to hook up with a storm. Well at least it's December and not January yet!