One word to sum up the 12z suite of models - CONFUSION
The Canadian shows an impressive secondary on the 17th storm that leads to a significant snow across New England into NYC and N NJ (rain to significant snow). This secondary becomes a block and actually is too strong to develop our 19th storm!
The GFS is very unimpressed with the secondary of the 17th secondary due to model errors will highlight below. This leads to an inland track on the 19th
The Euro is somewhat identical to the Canadian but not as strong and heavy with the snow, but similar locations get in on the wintry side of the event. This low is too weak to provide cold air support into the NE for the main event which starts off very warm but gets cold.
Upper levels on each model is different in a big way! Remember models are just guidance we know what the pattern is telling us we are just waiting on the guidance to catch up!
The model shears out our secondary or lack there of this does not slow down the pattern and as a result our main system is now on the 18th instead of the 19th with an inland track. Because nothing is there to block it! We rely on the "unlikely to happen" vortex displaced to the ne of our 50/50 position.
GFS and EURO
The European model is not far away from showing a major east coast snow storm if we can develop the secondary stronger and push it more towards our 50/50 low position. The Euro shears it out and we do not see the cold air support come south into the developing low. As a result it is mainly a rain event for everyone in the Middle Atlantic with a rain to snow situation for the Northeast with accumulations likely in New England.
The CMC is most likely overdoing the secondary low, but a compromise of the two solutions brings back a solution the Euro had last night with a big snow storm for many in the interior to NW of the major cities.
Lets Run the GFS a few times with different initial conditions:
As you can see we have every solution being displayed above with very little agreement. Most importantly the ensembles do not support the inland track by the OP.
EURO ENSEMBLES SHOW POTENTIAL INCREASING FOR BIG SNOW EVENT ON 19th
EURO ENSEMBLES are much colder than the operational. This is good news for snow lovers along I-95 and NW.
The models will do crazy things that's why we use them as guidance. We know a storm is likely around the 19th. We know the pattern will be favorable for a winter weather event for the Northeast and Middle Atlantic. Now lets wait and see how the first storm on the 17th works out as I might have to make a snow map for our NYC/N NJ readers if the CMC is on to something.
Also remember what I said a few days ago...whether rain or snow on the 19th its the pattern that sets up behind it that brings the potential White Christmas!
Cynthia...you have been told once before...NOBODY knows yet...this storm is 7 if not 8 days away...You gotta wait till at least 2 to 3 days before ...and maybe even 1 day the way the models change their minds
Mike: Hurricane Schwartz mentioned a possible Nor'easter with a mix and rain on his 4:00 7 day forecast for Wed, the 19th. First mention I have seen by a local Philly met. Way too early yet; will be interesting to see what the next model runs say. Fun to track no matter what happens down the road.
Hi Mike: If the 19th storm is rain what would happen after the 19th to possibly give me a white christmas in syracuse. Also would Syracuse get this storm? If snow how much? Would Syracuse get the Brunt of it?