BLOG SONG...HOW DEEP IS YOUR LOW (BEE GEES)

I know your eyes in the morning glow
I feel you touch me in the "falling snow"
And the moment that you wander far from me
I wanna feel you in my "models" again

And you come to me on a "winter breeze"
Keep me warm in your love and then softly leave
And it's me you need to show

Chorus:
How deep is your "LOW"
I really need to learn
Cause were living in a world of models
Breaking us down
When they all should let us be
We belong to you and me

We have a good deal of confidence regarding snowstorms for the second half of December the tougher part is finding the exact track for each one. Weather is all teleconnected and each variable play off another.

VARIABLES FOR DEC 17-31

--How much cold is cold (December Cold vs. Arctic Cold)

--Blocking Potential (-NAO...how deep is your low)

--Big storm...little storm concept

--BYOC...Bring your own cold (to the storm)

--Bomber Time (do you explode the storm off the coast)

BLOCKING PATTERN.... (-NAO RUNS HOW LOW?)

Looking over the NAO above I see a moderate to HIGH risk of a nor'easter but the placement is going to be so so crucial come the next two storm chances.  The block is there but not a FULL block with a -1 on the index vs. -3 during Sandy and -2 the nor'easter after that.

So with a -1 NAO index you get maybe more of a Northern Mid Atlantic and New England storm depending on where the storm makes an exit off the coast next week.

Yes the true Arctic Cold Air is delayed behind the NAO and it may catch up as the NAO is heading to a more neutral run. This is not a bad thing it's a model's nightmare as they try and find not only where or even if the Northern and Southern Jet will phase but when they will meet.

This will make for a series of model runs the next 7 days of off the coast storm and out to sea to an inland I-95 storm of rain.

The Winter Dance is all about the Northern Jet & Southern Jet having that special dance at the party full of dips and spins and more.

This is a dynamic storm and has some pretty decent potential IF the track plays out a certain way come next Tuesday and Wednesday.

THE EURO JUST IN... WOW

MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...

This is getting interesting for sure as  the models are starting to see the push to the coast. This is worth watching simply because the BEACH EROSION AND NOR"EASTER impact could be as potent as the snow itself.