I know your eyes in the morning glow I feel you touch me in the "falling snow" And the moment that you wander far from me I wanna feel you in my "models" again
And you come to me on a "winter breeze" Keep me warm in your love and then softly leave And it's me you need to show
Chorus: How deep is your "LOW" I really need to learn Cause were living in a world of models Breaking us down When they all should let us be We belong to you and me
We have a good deal of confidence regarding snowstorms for the second half of December the tougher part is finding the exact track for each one. Weather is all teleconnected and each variable play off another.
VARIABLES FOR DEC 17-31
--How much cold is cold (December Cold vs. Arctic Cold)
--Blocking Potential (-NAO...how deep is your low)
--Big storm...little storm concept
--BYOC...Bring your own cold (to the storm)
--Bomber Time (do you explode the storm off the coast)
BLOCKING PATTERN.... (-NAO RUNS HOW LOW?)
Looking over the NAO above I see a moderate to HIGH risk of a nor'easter but the placement is going to be so so crucial come the next two storm chances. The block is there but not a FULL block with a -1 on the index vs. -3 during Sandy and -2 the nor'easter after that.
So with a -1 NAO index you get maybe more of a Northern Mid Atlantic and New England storm depending on where the storm makes an exit off the coast next week.
Yes the true Arctic Cold Air is delayed behind the NAO and it may catch up as the NAO is heading to a more neutral run. This is not a bad thing it's a model's nightmare as they try and find not only where or even if the Northern and Southern Jet will phase but when they will meet.
This will make for a series of model runs the next 7 days of off the coast storm and out to sea to an inland I-95 storm of rain.
The Winter Dance is all about the Northern Jet & Southern Jet having that special dance at the party full of dips and spins and more.
This is a dynamic storm and has some pretty decent potential IF the track plays out a certain way come next Tuesday and Wednesday.
THE EURO JUST IN... WOW
MY THINKING AT THIS POINT...
This is getting interesting for sure as the models are starting to see the push to the coast. This is worth watching simply because the BEACH EROSION AND NOR"EASTER impact could be as potent as the snow itself.
FYI December 2009 storm...when it was 5 days out the models were all over the place oh I remember that very very well. I think the Euro and GFS are better than they were 3 years ago when it comes to bigger storms
Marcus the Euro is a big storm, but it's warm as all heck. Rain all the way to the Poconos into Central NY before a chageover up that way and then just cold on the backend down here with maybe soem flurries at the end, but no snow verbatim anywhere on the Euro.
Well the euro was certainly interesting. Hits the BM sub 975.
Consistently showing a storm now on most models. So now it's just a matter of time of where it's gonna be. Gonna be fun for the next week. Ill give it til Sunday-Monday timeframe to start getting nailed down.
Rob: Excellent blog and graphics. What time for the next model runs? Does the weather look ok for travel on Mon and Tues am from the Philly suburbs to southern DE? I realize its four days away, but trying to plan some things.
You know, I remember when the NAO got so negative, that the Deep South got all the big snows and up here, we didn't see anything. Pretty much a suppressed storm track. Looks like the big Nor'east will be too warm for next based on the 12z GFS. This run does show another system that would impact the Carolinas by Christmas Eve. But now we are seeing some very interesting tracks and finally a very interesting pattern to wrap up 2012..