The European model has shifted once again but this time produces a major snow storm for some in the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast. Right now it is north and west of the city but only slighlty in this run. The rain changes over to snow in the major cities though with some significant accumulations possible (verbatim on this run). This not like the Euro that has nailed storms previously as it has been flip flopping. But if it shows this solution tomorrow and tomorrow night...the snow drought will be over for many!
Blue shading is the snow, as you can see the "approximate" rn/sn line goes right through Philly!
The Euro ensemble gives the nod of approval to the Operational model:
The GFS shows a perfect track but the temperatures are nowhere supportive of snow. The model is wrong in the 00z wrong as it shows a solution that is not really possible. It does not intensify the secondary low with our 17th system that sets us up for the 19th system. The reason is because it has another strong sfc low just to the NE right next to another strong low. This does not make sense and the result is the shearing and eventually cutting off of the northern stream allowing no cold air to be tapped for a snow event. Illustrated below is the New GFS and the Older GFS which was more suppressed and a big snow event for some in the Middle Atlantic:
Notice the two strong vorticies right next to each other...very questionable.
Conclusion on GFS:The GFS still shows the coastal storm but does a lot of questionable things. The main thing is even with a further displaced system to the NE the low does not cut inland. The pattern is supportive of the coastal track/early secondary:
The Canadian model does not show any ridging in the Western US. In my previous blog on the pattern I illustrate why this will most likely be wrong, but this solution still ends up providing wintry weather to the Northern Middle Atlantic and Northeast.
NYC and just to the north gets the jackpot from this model verbatim as dry slot quickly ends the precip across PA/NJ. But we are not focusing on such details this far out!
Snowstorm Threat for portions of the Middle Atlantic and Northeast is increasing
First storm gets sheared out and doesn't evolve into or 50/50 to drag down some cold air out in front. Without that high in Quebec with the airmass we will have in place ahead of this Strom we are basically screwed all the way to the poconos.
Mike, the "city" referred to in the European section at top - is that city Philadelphia? And what cities are considered the "Northern Middle Atlantic"? Is Baltimore or Central MD considered the "Middle Mid-Atlantic"? Just wondering. Sorry if this is obvious to most. I'm still a Tenderfoot :)
Mike, the "city" referred to in the European section at top - is that city Philadelphia? And what cities are considered the "Northern Middle Atlantic"? Is Baltimore "Middle Mid-Atlantic"? Just wondering. Local weather people here (Baltimore) have temps in the 40's for next week.
It's going to be model madness unitl the first storm this Sunday-Monday takes shape. How it evovles has a huge impact on this threat and what becomes of it. The stronger the first storm becomes the better for everyone.
Well, I guess you already answered my question. It would seem if that first storm(12/16- 12/17) stays weak there would be no cold air for the storm to work off of. Have to admit that 00z GFS looked a bit strange. Doesn't really look like there is much of a high to the north to feed in the cold air.