As expected the European model has shifted east in a big way! Is it right? No but it is showing it is confused and coming around to the GFS and this makes sense because of the pattern we are going in as discussed HERE
Not going to go too much into the OP Euro because it develops a phantom storm that is not showing up on ensembles or the GFS right after the 17th. It takes some lead southern stream s/w energy and forms another low right in between our 17th storm and main storm for the 19th.
Number two does not exist on any other guidance and would greatly diminish moisture return from the GOM on our storm number 1 but the EURO does not show that either. It develops a big storm from number 1 also but takes it to the south. Big difference from the Ohio valley track in previous runs. This model is confused!!
West of the OP but well east of previous Euro ensembles from 00z. They take the low to the Ohio Valley but redevelop it off Delmarva. Still too warm verbatim for the coast and major cities, but the trend is our friend. This is still different from the GFS idea of a miller A system but the trend is our friend again here!
Our main low is over KY/IL/TN/MO and notice the isobars kinking towards the coast a lot earlier! Last run of the euro ensembles showed a secondary developing off Northern New England this run has shifted to Delmarva. Our storm on the 17th is departing, but the model puts more emphasis on this storm and prevents our main system from cutting north and west. It forces a secondary to develop sooner. It acts as our 50/50!
Below I drew the occlusion from previous frame but the low does not develop until this hour 192. Notice the significant shift of the 540 line. As this storm rides northward it produces a big winter storm for the Northeast and New England. Too warm for Major cities and coast with the exception of NYC - BOS as a rain to significant snow seems possible given track.
Verbatim this pushes offshore but not before delivering a big snow event to portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic.
-Winter Storm Threat increasing for portions of the Northern Middle Atlantic into Northeast.
- Interior locations have best shot as of now
- Rain or Snow this storm sets us up for the potential for another one behind it which might produce a White Christmas for many!