It is still too early to tell where the 19th storm is going, but we are liking the signs of where we are headed after the 19th storm.  But first the GFS solution of a miller A coastal track does make sense as I outlined in my latest pattern post seen CLICK HERE

GFS

A miller A storm is one that develops in the Southeast/GOM and pushes as one organized area of low pressure up the east coast.  This results in a track that produces (in this case) a pretty significant winter weather event for portions of the  Lower Middle Atlantic into the Northeast. Since the European is in disagreement most immediately dismiss the GFS, but in my latest blog I point out why this ridge out west and the overall set up supports the GFS a little bit more.  

EURO

 A miller b system is one that moves through the Ohio Valley and redevelops off the Northeast coast as a secondary.  This storm provides a winter storm for New England but nothing to the south.  However, the key component is what happens afterwards.  

The system on the 19th turns into our 50/50 low.  This low plays a big role in most of the significant snow events in the major cities along the I-95 corridor as it provides a confluent flow over New England (where a high should be stronger than modeled) that keeps the cold air locked in and prevents an inland track.  As the next system approaches...

Conclusion:

Winter storm(s) threat is increasing for the Middle Atlantic and Northeast from December 19th to the end of the month.   The pattern is evolving and models are beginning to show this as we see here on the GFS and the European with storm after storm carving out our Eastern US trough and potential winter storm(s).