As we sit on the heels of a warm start to December you may wonder where is the cold air ? It's still up north in Alaska but the pattern change will bring the cold air down here this month.
The very cold air has been hanging up north but due to a -AO and -NAO we'll see this chunk of cold air start to head south. The question becomes how cold will it really be since the snow cover has moved back north.
Here is how the cold air will make it south. The EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation) will move the core of cold air east out of Alaska and down into Lower Canada and the U.S.
(Source: Mike Masco)
Once we see a few of the players (H & L) move in the right spot the cold air will move into the Midwest and East via the Ohio Cutter.
So what do the models think of this change in the next 10-15 days?
What is my thinking right now...
The NAO and AO shows us that we have cold air available but in pieces. That is not a bad thing if you want snow from DC to Boston. Just enough COLD keeps a storm in the Mid Atlantic, too much cold and it goes south and out. We do have to keep an eye even in VA and NC on this storm as it slides into the colder air and off the coast.
It's worth watching after the 15th and the models are starting to sniff out something so this could be the event to get a good part of the Northeast, Mid Atlantic and maybe parts of the Southeast in the holiday spirit.
Check back on the website as our meteorologists start to track this potential snow and or mix event.
Is snow coming to Virginia this month? All I want this year for Christmas is a December snow.. I dont think last winter will happen again though. We may just have some pattern shifts. The west is stormy then the pattern switches to make the east stormy. Sure, it may not be an astonishingly cold winter but the important thing to remember is we'll make it to winter this year! Hows January looking as well? I've been hearing January is the best chance for snowstorms and bitter cold
AO already showing signs of going positive. Yet again another repeat of last winter is beginning. The "wait 2 weeks" is already beginning. Yet again winter started to early around here with early snow storms.
I refuse to believe anymore of these models on long range cold. Pacific Ocean is just pumpin right now. Well see what happens... But I refuse to get burned again and I expect another mundane winter.