Thanks to all who attended the Winter Weather Workshop... we had weather enthusiasts come from PA, NJ, DE, NY and Long Island some more than 2 hours away. It was a great turnout and the crew at liveweatherblogs, geoea.org and nynjpaweather did a great job.
We see many signals that now indicate winter will get going after December 15th with somewhat of a break between now and mid month. The pattern is changing once again and the keep will be where we place the storm track with cold air to the north and a series of southern storms tracking north.
We need to look at the two big players (NAO & AO) first than see where we stand with what's going on out west.
Both the NAO and AO slide further down on the negative side from mid December to the end of December. These two indicators run about 2 weeks out in time and you want to look for the NAO to be coming out or going into that slide for a time frame for storms.
The AO also dips this means a cold air invasion for the Midwest and East. The cold air could get as deep as the Carolinas by mid to late month.
We talked quite a bit about what was going on the Gulf of Alaska yesterday and what it means for the future of this winter. Things will start to change up there as well opening the door for stormy weather in the Midwest and East including rounds of lake effect snow this month.
I wanted to make it but I unfortunately got called into work.. Well basically had to stay at work for another shift so I got missed out. Sucks. Glad everyone had a good time still upset I missed it would have been cool to meet faces to names on here and grabbed some brews!
The workshop was fantastic. Thanks to those who put it together. It was nice to meet everyone. I was still battling the effects of a sinus infection - sorry about that. I was hoping to meet Marcus - he probably got lost.
I may lay out in the sun over the next two days - last chance to do so before the cold air settles in. 2010 blizzard was great - got about eighteen inches, but the shore was the winner with thirty-plus. I am so ready for this pattern to change.
Now we have to get the PNA to go positive!! I mean, the NAO and AO have been negative, but the country is flooded with Pacific air right now. The sub tropical jet is also non existent, but that looks to change in the next few weeks, so if we can get the +PNA we should be in business for some winter weather!
Ahhh!!! Im so happy. Especially when I look at the NAO index for December 16th, i cant believe its going to trend THAT negative. Im in Lynchburg, Virginia. How's the snow looking for us as of mid-late December? but i checked NOAA's 8-14 day temperature outlook and it still has us at above normal from Dec 10-16. So are you sure this will change and well have a winter? You promise me? haha
Looking forward to it. Most models agree with the cold air invasion for once and not just the GFS. So it won't be a repeat of last year. Euro hinted at a snow storm on its 12z run yesterday for our area around the 10th. Well see if it shows back up but that storm looks like the dam breaker so it's most likely gonna head the Great Lakes and allow a huge cold front to sink south with the arctic air. White Christmas chances are looking decent this year. Hopefully its not a day late again like 2010 lol or was it 2009?