Thanks to all who attended the Winter Weather Workshop... we had weather enthusiasts come from PA, NJ, DE, NY and Long Island some more than 2 hours away.  It was a great turnout and the crew at liveweatherblogs, geoea.org and nynjpaweather did a great job.

We see many signals that now indicate winter will get going after December 15th with somewhat of a break between now and mid month. The pattern is changing once again and the keep will be where we place the storm track with cold air to the north and a series of southern storms tracking north.

We need to look at the two big players (NAO & AO)  first than see where we stand with what's going on out west.  

Both the NAO and AO slide further down on the negative side from mid December to the end of December. These two indicators run about 2 weeks out in time and you want to look for the NAO to be coming out or going into that slide for a time frame for storms.

The AO also dips this means a cold air invasion for the Midwest and East. The cold air could get as deep as the Carolinas by mid to late month.

We talked quite a bit about what was going on the Gulf of Alaska yesterday and what it means for the future of this winter. Things will start to change up there as well opening the door for stormy weather in the Midwest and East including rounds of lake effect snow this month.